So barely any change with the T20 other than some new Chinese names (surprise, surprise)
Absence of selling by HuaYou suggests they still want AVZ and Manono
Current talks to acquire another 5% + 5% from C & Dathomir suggest prospective JV partners want this
Current MC circa $71.76m
SPP $15m, no doubt this will be fully oversubscribed
Cash as a % of MC will be 20.09% on the world’s biggest JORC lithium resource (more than double the size of KDR and to be more than doubled again
Dossandt’s conversation with EA for Nigel told us that Nigel has “closed-door” broker presentations in Sydney and Melbourne on Monday and Tuesday
This means sophs / Instos are now interested again, at the current price in the current circumstances and consider AVZ a bargain
Single placement to one soph or Insto, $15m at 10% VWAP discount with 12 months escrow a real possibility, SPP would be pulled and AVZ could still dilute HuaYou’s shareholdings compelling them to buy on market
There's only so far a stock with exceptional underlying assets like AVZ will be pummeled. Can’t blame the Chinese for trying to screw us down. Michael Langford made them suffer for 9-12 months, they’ve now made us suffer for 9-12 months, the shoe will be on the other foot once more pretty soon esp now that Manono is proven.
Finally a look at the charts.
Indicators say way oversold and in fact the last 2 times AVZ was this oversold (in June and Oct) it surged about 50% only 5-7 days later.
Now look at the 30 min and 1 hour charts and it’s clear that short-term AVZ is turning around already, refusing to go lower.
Finally the 1 min chart over 2 days shows a plateau.
Yes it’s been a hard slog but with the $15m SPP certain to succeed due to the 25% discount and $5m underwritten by Pattos there is definitely light at the end of this tunnel and the SP will re-rate higher as $15m cash would be a whopping 20.09% of the current MC.
More drilling results, met results, transport decision and Scoping Study 2.0 news coming very soon, in addition to possible 5% + 5% news (increasing AVZ stake to 70%) in addition to JV news that could drop any time. Too many positive catalysts and no negative ones that I can see from here.
Opinion only, not advice, dyor etc
