Ausheads, it's all a complex, convoluted, web of intrigues. One...

Ausheads, it's all a complex, convoluted, web of intrigues.

One of the few certainties is that a future Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is not a shoo in.

Mahathir is staying very, very vague about his promised transition to Anwar - when it will happen, and especially how it might happen - he's keeping it all up in the air. Yes, and Anwar carries on professing his admiration and loyalty to the prevaricating Doctor - biding his time.

Mahathir keeps a remarkable degree of control over the Government despite his party, Bersatu, having a far smaller number of seats compared to both PKR and DAP. They still need his authority and standing with the establishment.

Anwar has a nemesis within PKR, Azim Ali. They are political comrades, of course, like Trotsky and Stalin were. Some say Mahathir prefers Azim, and it's Azim who'll emerge as the next PM.

In all the years Mahathir and Anwar have known each other, it's often seemed a case of strong adversaries keeping their enemies close to them.

Anwar joined UMNO after making a national name for himself as a fiercely anti-UMNO radical, and Islamic Youth activist. Mahathir took him under his wing. Both these actions flummoxed their respective supporters.

Mahathir's "Golden Boy" was then rocketed up through the ranks until, as Finance Minister, he turned on and ousted Mahathir's loyal ally, Tun Baba, to become Deputy PM.

Though Mahathir claimed to be happy with Anwar as DPM, major personal conflicts emerged, and it wasn't long before Anwar's supporters started undermining Mahathir himself, using the issue of cronyism. And that put Anwar on track to UMNO expulsion, sodomy charges and jail time. Anwar has never backed down; quite the opposite.

Political expediency brought them back together however. Anwar needed Dr M's prestige to tip the election towards his anti-establishment coalition, and Dr M was so angry with his corrupt successor Prime Ministers that he wanted to turf out UMNO.

So what's changed between these two?

Nothing major, probably.

Dr M probably still resents the idea of Anwar taking his job.

And when Dr M goes, his Bersatu MPs may well merge back into UMNO (where most of them defected from). Unless Bersatu can replace UMNO as the leading Bumi party (long shot); then UMNO MPs go to Bersatu. Basically UMNO/Bersatu share the same voter base.

WIthout Dr M and Bersatu, Harapan may well lose the numbers to ever make Anwar Prime Minister.

All up in the air I'd say.

And DAP?

Well, consider this, PAS, representing the Islamic movement in which Anwar cut his teeth, warns that DAP is conspiring to make Malays less Muslim, marginalise them in their own country, etc. UMNO say it will never work with DAP. With such a communal divide, it's hard to see DAP as anything but a party for the ethnic Chinese minority.

So long as DAP is focussed on seeking equal rights and freedoms for all races, rule of law, anti-corruption, modernism and economic development it very much looks like one of the good guys. DAP came out of anti-establishment roots, to replace the more compliant MCA as the advocate for Malaysia's Chinese.

Naturally, DAP will try to leverage China's ascendancy - it's a question of how subtle - how skillfully can DAP walk the tightrope? China's rising regional power gives the Chinese community leverage - maybe even ultimately deliver them dominance in Malaysia. So a DAP PM? Certainly not yet....

There's enough Greater China sentiment, and resentment against the Bumi policies, to form a "5th Column" in the population. With momentum it could snowball. Malays are well aware of this - the CCP attempted to take over Malaysia in the 1950s ("the Vietnam" that we won) - and the recent corruption scandal around Belt and Road was a shocking wake up call. It's a very serious issue.

Who needs to watch Game of Thrones....