Just a general observation, but interesting POV expressed by Ff in that he points at a great deal of uncertainty & confusion:
"As far as the discussion about Dy and NdPr, that's all well and good. However it is only relevant in how it may effect LYC's profitability. With the industry in flux due to technical innovation, and changes in technology, as well as other macro disruptions such as oil and the global GDP in decline, there is far too much uncertainty to make any reliable predictions about the prices and demand of either NdPr or Dy.
The only thing that can reliably be said is that the heavies will be in short supply and that the light REEs will be in over supply unless more mines for heavies start up. Many of the Light REEs are as you said yourself are byproducts of other mining activities so if anyone builds even a small refinery to take the byproducts from other activities and can concentrate and produce them cheaply as the Chinese currently do LYC could find their operation in trouble.
Too many things can change on the demand side in the near future for any reliable predictions to be made. For instance take household lighting for instance the new LEDs use far less RE than the compact Fluoros and last longer. While they still use RE it is far less! If this sort of demand destruction continues they will be using NdPr as road base next. ( slight exaggeration to make the point.)"
In total contrast I believe we are seeing a great deal of clarity regarding the re-emerging RE industry & future demand drivers. Trends re phosphors/Dy (HRE) are well established in their main demand segments, with indications of remaining flat at best. Total demand for the main 3 elements, Dy, Tb & Eu, is only 1600/2000tpa, Lynas can add 25% to Eu, Moly + Lynas can add 10% Dy, perhaps ALK another 10%, very hard to see any stand alone HRE deposits putting an economic case anytime soon.
By contrast we see La demand equal to peak 2008 levels circa 14ktpa driven by FCC, Pr demand resulting in prices equal to 2011 average circa $100kg and NdFeB magnets sans Dy far more cost efficient and therefore able to compete with alternates.
Seems quite clear Nd & Pr will be the financial backbone of any RE processor, and the most efficient producers will be the winners. Apart from the obvious grades & recoveries efficiencies will also be determined by the ability to place balance of suite, call them by-products perhaps.
Not so hard to look at Lynas's grades, suite balance & foundation offtakes to understand how all that might work, particularly as demand by element by market segment becomes much clearer.
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