Indeed, that is how it appears John Kanellitsas, Vice Chairman...

  1. niu
    1,638 Posts.
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    Indeed, that is how it appears
    John Kanellitsas, Vice Chairman and President of Lithium Americas, commented: "Upon the completion of the Ganfeng transaction announced two days ago and this BCPI transaction announced today on virtually identical terms, Lithium Americas will have raised US$286 million, which we believe will satisfy the financing requirements for Lithium America’s 50% share of Stage 1 of the Cauchari-Olaroz joint venture. The terms and size of the debt facilities provide Lithium Americas increased financial flexibility, limit dilution to existing shareholders, and avoid onerous covenants, prepayment penalties or costs other than interest on the amount drawn. BCPI has been a committed and supportive shareholder and we very much welcome this additional investment."

    The investment is equity in LAC rather than at the project level. It puts their balance sheet in good position to get through the construction and probably the ramp up as well, with a debt facility in hand should it be required. If all goes well for them they may have some change left over to pursue their Nevada clay dreams or whatever...

    Interesting to see Mr Lithium played some role in brokering the deal. It might explain his incessant talking up of LAC and occasional lament that the Olaroz start up had made it harder for juniors to get funding. As much as Joe is calling it a great deal for both parties, Ganfeng must rue not moving before SQM...

    But anyway back to my earlier theme, although there is more to LAC than stage 1, the same is true of ORE and look how little it plays in to the sp. Cauchari stage 2 is much more remote than Olaroz stage 2. Clay is yet to be proved technically and economically feasible - economics behind hard rock many would say. Against that ORE has the AAL/Cauchari deal, Salinas Grande, Borax... all of which appear to count for little in the share price. The offtake rights might count for a bit although they are at market price, so this would be a limited impact. All things considered, I think it is safe to do valuations based purely on stage 1 Cauchari - I don't think much else could be factored in.

    Minera Exar has an existing (2012) MOU with JEMSE with similar terms to the SDJ JV. JEMSE end up with 8.5% of Exar. For this exercise, I will assume that it comes equally from SQMs and LACs share.
    So of 25,000 tpa, JEMSE's share is 2125 tpa and I am assuming the balance splits equally between LAC and SQM = 11437.5 tpa
    Ganfeng's offtake share is at market price so I think we just look at the 19.9% equity stake = 2276 tpa.
    On that basis, 174m USD translates to 76.5 kUSD per 1 tpa
    Bear in mind - this is a risked valuation with first cashflow coming in about 2.5 to 3 years.
    How much discount for the project risk and DCF?

    Meanwhile, ORE's 66.5% share of 17,500 tpa = 11,637.5 tpa
    This translates to 890m USD = 1,181 mAUD = 5.62/share based on a risked valuation (and assuming Ganfeng know better then most what a Lithum asset is worth)
    How much then for an unrisked valuation with cash flowing now...?
 
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