I have done some analysis in comparison to another silver play in the market, CCU. It has a market capitalisation of approx $30m and is nowhere near as advanced as AYN. I like CCU but it is either way overvalued, which I don’t think is the case or AYN is worth a stack more;
AYN (Market cap $6m @ 1cps) v CCU (market cap $34m @ 29.5c)
CCU has an INFERRED JORC resource of 44moz of SILVER. That implies a value a value of around $0.75/oz Ag. AYN has a 37moz resource across, inferred, indicated and measured which means a better higher confidence resource than than CCU.
Just using $0.75/oz and not a higher value for better quality resource that AYN, means $27.5m EV for AYN, which divided by 600,554,932 gives 4.65cents per share. Note I have not included options so that is undiluted.
AYN has roughly $15m to $20m (new replacement cost) of hard assets and equipment on site and in place, plus $3.2m cash and exploration upside which has NOT been factored value. So with the plant and equipment and the cash that is another 3.03 to 3.87cents per share.
The leaching pads on site could also have recoverable saleable silver in them. What could that be worth?
CCU only have a resource (not as a high a confidence in terms of JORC) and need $20m spent on CAPEX and feasibility study work before they get anywhere near production. Not to mention AT BEST 2 years lead time from here
So to sum it all up AYN valued pound for pound is worth;
· 4.65c for Silver in the ground (no extra value for MEASURED which is a higher confidence resource)
· 3.03c to 3.87c for plant and equipment
· Exploration??
· Potential recoverable silver on site??
· 7.7c to 8.5c with exploration and potentially recoverable silver on site through in for free
Anyway you look at this its cheap.
AYN Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
