CPI data tried its best, but no Cigar - can Powell provide some...

CPI data tried its best, but no Cigar - can Powell provide some fuel?

Yes AZL remained flat to finish at 6.7c. Our volume was on lower side, just over 9.7m shares traded. No real direction today, just holding the line - hopefully get above 6.8 soon.

ASX Li stocks was more or less flat. Of the 54 stocks that I track, there was no gain or loss

Overnight US Li stocks were nearly flat but few finished in green. On average the gain was around 1%.


What next:
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Yesterday we got a favourable CPI data. Markets opened big, but gave up most of the gains by the end of the day - not all, but a good chunk. SP 500 gained around 0.75% to finish around 4020. ASX also had a similar gain around 0.7%. Most resource stocks that I follow were confused, on average they remained flat.
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So yesterday JP Morgan had said we could gain up to 10% - but that was if we got a reading of 6.9. Still based on their prediction, we should have finished 3-4% up. anyway half the time their predictions are as such incorrect, so it was more an interesting observation than relying on it.
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Stocks did open quite high with Nasdaq around 4%. But all the bears were sitting tight at resistance/trend line. They pounced and pushed it back as indices reached there. Interestingly, on 1st Dec SP 500 reached 4100.51, yesterday it touched 4100.96 - Algos playing the market with precision in decimal places.
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So why was market not able to sustain the initial jump? Overall feeling is that economy still not well. Food/Shelter were still sticky with rest to CPI rate, Unemployment still has not reached a decent level. Also FOMC rate decision and Powell speaking today. So if something does not need to happen, punters find a reason. I am sure if it had increased 3-4%, we could similarly justify - markets are so unpredictable that its difficult to preconceive - better to follow price action. Act like a sheep and follow the instructions of the herd master - the Indices/Stock Prices.
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We are again seeing the trend that when there is a lot of uncertainity or fear in market, then if the Indices rise, its the medium to big stocks which will be able to capitalise on it. They will make gains, even if its small. The speccy end of side, the small caps, on average they will perform poorly. It was very evident in trading today - big stocks looked fine, small stocks looking for cover. The reverse is also true. when sentiment is good, these speccies will make a big dash and get ahead of big stocks in percentage gains. Something to keep in mind for people holding multiple stocks, which ones to hold at what time.
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It looks like we are in a very volatile state. Yesterday Volatility Index dropped nearly 10%. Before that, it had increased 10%. I found it very funny - the Volatility Index VIX is supposed to track volatility of stocks, now the VIX itself has become very volatile - holy moly - may be we need another index to track volatility of VIX. Some say these wild swings are signs of a big change coming to market - positive or negative. Lets see.
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SP 500, if it is to be bullish, it needs to finish above 4080. If it become bearish, it has to finish below 3930. Its currently at 4020 - in no man's land. Nearly for a month.

Lead indicators were very favourable yesterday - Yields fell, Dollar Index fell and Volatility Index VIX too fell. So good from that perspective. Now we need a big push - and push down the beras on ground and march forward.
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Personally have not done much - have mostly worked on rotation from one stock to another, if some looking weak. As I wrote on the weekend report, will wait for market direction in decisive way before deciding any big changes.
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So what will happen tonight? Rate rise number tonight and Powell to speak. We all know Powell wants to be hawkish so that markets don't go up, he things its good for him. He will try his best. Last 2 rate rise decisions, we had decent fall. But may indicators are looking good. Normally Powell should be happy, at least not hawkish. That enough will provide a boost and get us out of this trading range on the upside. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.