AZL Daily Report, page-45

Will there be some bounce tonight?

(Will keep it short as covered most in Weekly Report on the weekend)

AZL in trading halt, some acquisition. Lots of theories what that could be, but better to wait for announcement. 2022 has been a forgettable year in most extents including good announcement, will we get at least 1 good one before the year closes? We can only hope that its a good one. Lets see.

ASX Li stocks had a small decline today. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average loss was 1%.

What next:
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SP 500 has been red for 3 consecutive days. It has lost 5.5% from double top of 4100 sitting now at 3852. Key lower level after 3810 is 3750 - this needs to hold otherwise we may see a bigger decline. Upside, first level is 3900 - a major number where many action have happened. Next major one is just under 4000 at around 3995. So if there is a bounce in the next few days, many think it may try to get to 4000 and may fail there. There is a chance it may fail at 3900 itself, if there is a bounce. Crossing 4000 would be considered very bullish.
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From indicators and chart perspective, many indicators in medium term are looking quite bearish. But for the short term, both chart and lead indicators are pointing towards some bounce - whether it happens, is to be seen. Volatility Index VIX, Dollar Index, Yields all trading as if a bounce is in play. Also some charts in oversold region. Also if a bounce happens, whether its a feeble one or a more robust will depend on how bears and bulls fight it out. Bears are in some sort of control for last 2 weeks.
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So what will happen tonight? In most years we have a Santa Rally starting Mid-December and lasting till some time in January. But in years where we have bear market, unfortunately Santa gives a miss many times. 2022 has been a year to be forgotten for many. So its fair that Santa should make a visit, even if the gift is not a big one. A good decent bounce has a good probability from here, though nothing is certain. First step, gain 3900 on SP 500. Will that happen? lets hope so. All the best.