Will the PCE data side with the bulls?.Yes AZL lost 3 pips to...

Will the PCE data side with the bulls?
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Yes AZL lost 3 pips to finish at 7.1c. Our volume was good but lower than Wednesday, just over 23m shares traded. Those who read my posts I usually talk of a trading zone. Current zone is 6.8/7.7. So what did it do today? Went up to 7.7, touched 7.8 and came back. May be wants to consolidate - the small rise was no major news. So hopefully this is normal consolidation - but we do need to trade close to 7.7 in order to get out of this zone. If we start trading at lower end of the zone, then in one go its difficult to break the trading range. Lets hope it happens soon - the break and finish above 7.7.
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ASX Li stocks were mostly flat today but overall moving up. It started strongly in morning, but many gave up the good gains made in morning. Of the 73 stocks that I track, average gain was around 1%.
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Overnight US Li stocks were mixed. Though the ETF of LIT gained over 2%, other stocks were mixed - some green, some red - overall flat. So they didn't provide the boost which ASX Li needed, though Tesla did its best. .
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What next:
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On Wednesday I had written that it would be good if SP 500 finishes above 4000 and makes an attempt at 4050/4070. It didn't do that on Wednesday, but yesterday it broke thru 4050 and finished at 4060, just over 1% up. ASX was up but not much, just over 0.3%.
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So from my narrative of what I have been writing about SP 500, we did the first step of finishing over 4000. Next we crossed 4030 and in same process 4050 as well. So what's the next key number? Without doubt 4100. This is the number where we made a double top and retreated. This number is very dear to all bears out there. Many bear pundits believe that SP 500 will not cross 4100 and a lot of their analysis is based on doing a lower high than 4100. So a very critical and vicious fight coming up between bulls and the big bad bear.
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Lead indicators still good, slightly mixed though - Yields rose slightly, Volatility Index VIX fell and now below 19 and Dollar Index also weak.
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So have the bears given up after nearly 5 days finishing above the dreaded trend line? Not really. Yesterday both for SP 500 and Nasdaq, those who follow charts, a hanging man candlestick has ben formed - and this is supposed to be bearish. For reversal it still needs a follow through to finish below a number, so tonight is crucial for them. Also other divergences still there, including dumb money (retail) buying this rally which is not supported by smart money (institutions). Wouldn't it be good to trump these smarties for once?
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On Wednesday I had written that if the big crash is to happen, it should happen within a week. If we suppose that this can happen - what is the catalyst for that? First is earnings. Till now it has been mixed so has not given enough fodder to the bears. Second is PCE data which will happen tonight. We could get a very bad PCE data and that triggers the crash. The third and final if other 2 don't work is the Interest Rate Rise next Wednesday and Fed speak - a higher rise of say 0.5% or a very hawkish statement. But if these 3 don't work, they might give up.
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From a bullish perspective, on Wednesday I wrote its looking good, today it is looking better. Both from a chart perspective as well as economic conditions/indicators - at this stage its more bullish than bearish. So unless some catastrophic event/number comes up, odds are still in favour of bulls.
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Personally I am still there, adding my positions. But I would lie if I said that I was not worried about the bear 20% crash theory - after seeing what has happened in 2022, its good to be open to the idea and react accordingly. At this stage I am thinking, may be more hoping, that we may not get a crash - there could be a retest of 3900 but maybe not more. Odds are better that we may first cross 4100. Lets see.
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So what will happen tonight? US futures are in some red. Asian markets were largely green, but a small rise. Cryptos are in confusion now - sometimes going up few % above 23k, then falling below 23k - after a while they have become indecisive. Lots of earning data tonight. But most crucial PCE data before market opens. PCE data is critical for Fed for its interest rate rise decision, hence its very important. Also Personal Income and Spending data. Its a binary event, so its like a toss, so anything can happen. But there is a possibility of getting a good data, which could rally up the market. and this rally could take us past 4100 - and if that happens it will break the back of any bears as they have put all their resources to possibly short from that level. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.