AZL Daily Report, page-82

Big dilemma - Is this buy the dip or beginning of the big crash?
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Yes AZL lost 2 pips to finish at 7.1c. Our volume was quite low, just over 6m shares traded. So playing ding-dong in the middle area of trading range of 6.8/7.7 - need a big push to get out from here..
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ASX Li stocks were not in a good mood today. Of the 73 stocks that I track, average loss was around 2.5%.
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Overnight US Li stocks too did not like how the general markets were going. On average it lost 2.5%, similar to what ASX Li lost today.
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What next:
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Yesterday I had written that the highest probability was a back test of 4020 or possibly 4000 on SP 500 after 6 decent days. Somehow it played out exactly like that. SP 500 gave away a decent chunk of 1.3% to finish on 4017. ASX today was not happy, but was not crashing. It finished in slight red only
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So what was that big drop on SP 500 yesterday? Was that the backtest which the bulls were calling or the start of the big crash which bears are calling? Very difficult to say, we can all make our guess. What was not good about yesterday - it did the back test of 4020 which I expected, but not good that it could not hold and finish above that. secondly, it finished around the day's low. What is still fine is that we still hold 4000 and even 3900.
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The bears who were calling for the big crash to start this week are near certain that this is the beginning.
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So we could see what 1 bad day can do. Sentiment turned slightly down and all bears brought in their shorters and tried to have a field day. they were winning today. Most analysts believe that this week will be defining week to give direction not only for next few weeks but maybe months. Some bankers are saying that we may not have a good February, synonymous with bears calling for the crash. But there is no doubt that all those analysts comparing patterns from previous years are missing a point that economic conditions are much better and robust than 2002 or 2008. But you never know, so best to keep an open eye. I still don't think we will have the 20% crash, but a test of 4000 which is now very near or 3900 could happen. The very bottom to prevent the crash is to stay above 3810. Upside, its critical to keep finishing above 4000 and get over 4100 as soon as possible to bury the bear theory.
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Personally I am still in but I let around 15% go in the morning when my first number 4020 did not hold overnight - just my way of managing risk. Many stocks did actually drop close to 10% from morning to evening, so I actually bought back half of it . Lets see what's in store - certainly has created some anxiety.
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So what will happen tonight? US futures are largely flat. Asian markets were largely red. Cryptos again panicking with Bitcoin now below 23k. Lots of earning reports that could provide direction. Some economic data as well. Technicals and sentiments could drive the market tonight. Bulls have been given the mantle for first time in a very decisive stage, and they should do all to keep momentum going. There is chance of sideways movement tonight - indecisive phase before FOMC tomorrow. It would be good to hold 4000 on SP 500 and get towards 4100 - that will be bullish. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.