@onemancavalry
A great question, but unfortunately there are no answers for that.
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I usually refrain from predicting what is going to happen. In most of my posts, I mention what may be the next level if we go down, or what may be the next level if it goes up. So when I mention price, I always think of both up and down.
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For me its usually a play between one level to next. Currently we broke 2.5, so I am not sure of next levels, hence haven't mentioned anything. What I can see though that it is happening on very low volume, so there are chances that if Li macro/sentiment changes some day, a big volume could take care of small pip drops in just one go. But the question is - when will that Li macro/sentiment change?
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There is no clear direction or confirmation of a strong reversal at this stage. So a wait time for those who hold. For those not comfortable, maybe exiting and waiting on sideline. At this stage I am playing with caution knowing that we are in an uncertain territory currently. On my Weekly Post for 22nd Jan I had mentioned I was with 50% cash, and that is one of the reasons. But I still hold a few Li stocks, am trying to sell and buy back to lower my average of those that I hold, sometimes very successful, but other times am being hesitant as prices have fallen a lot. But I still feel that is the play till a reversal happens, to lower average. Holding AZL/WC8 decent amount, rest moderate where I also post sometimes.
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ASX Li stocks on average have lost 21% across 96 Li stocks I track in Weekly Report for this calendar year. AZL is down around 26%, so more or less in line with average (see link below for 29th Jan Weekly Report). Only 4 out of 96 Li stocks are in green for this calendar year. So situation is grim. How low it can go? We don't know. And I said, I don't like predictions, rather play as we go, prepared for any scenario.
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.So regarding your specific question, of 26.5c and then what will happen, as you can see I won't have a view now based on what I have written. For me it would be a play from level to level - 2.5, 2.9, 3.5, 4, 5 - if things go well I can see 8 and 10 on the horizon, but AZL has to well and Li macro/sentiment should be at least neutral if not positive. After every level we will have more info, both AZL and Li macro, and they may drive expectation for next level. So it may be an evolving story. In the current situation, punters just worried - when will the bleeding stop?. So we will get there once we see a momentum reversal. Till then its best not to think far ahead - at least I take it that way. All the best.
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.Last Weekly Report from 29th Jan (no commentary etc as I was away during long weekend).
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https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sya-weekly-report.6951924/page-3#post-72100672
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Last
2.1¢ |
Change
-0.002(8.70%) |
Mkt cap ! $93.95M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
2.2¢ | 2.3¢ | 2.1¢ | $141.9K | 6.481M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
42 | 12433531 | 2.1¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.2¢ | 2431558 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
42 | 12433531 | 0.021 |
30 | 8491499 | 0.020 |
12 | 3180367 | 0.019 |
6 | 1488336 | 0.018 |
7 | 2008882 | 0.017 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.022 | 2431558 | 1 |
0.023 | 3311459 | 8 |
0.024 | 5230978 | 18 |
0.025 | 6595265 | 41 |
0.026 | 4423715 | 19 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 05/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
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Change
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Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
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Last updated 15.48pm 05/06/2024 ? |
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