Hi @Damien43 your concerns are valid, macroeconomics plays a part in pricing.
Remember though that current prices are influenced by China. No denying it, they reign. But the doom and gloom is misplaced in my opinion because our market is not China. It's the US. US battery demand is skyrocketing up. By 2025, 2026 and 2027 when US factories and battery plants starts to finish construction and enter production will be a huge demand on raw materials and take that influence away from China. This is why EU also doesn't like the IRA because it sucks in every capital investment into its orbit today and further sucks up what limited supply of materials required in the near future (2025 onwards). Mining companies target their dates of production based on when these factories and battery plants will "go live". Literally why we're here.
To answer your question, which I'm happy to as they are general...
1. AZL prices will be based on forecasted average prices based on current price with 8% discount. So expect approx $15k/tonne LHM. No need to provide different scenarios when you're already assuming the worse.
2. OPEX expectation will be at the low end of $3k-$5k/tonne. If it's even lower, which I doubt, if will be a surprise to market. CAPEX, for 6,000tonnes per year the market would expect $200M. Anything lower (and I'm sure it will be much lower) will be a surprise to market and those already invested will adjust their numbers and forecast, which should translate to higher share price.
It's wrong to suggest that those investing at 20c last year is at a lost right now. That's day trader's talk. The share price only really matters from acquisition vs share price at production, and the promised IRR. Most investors expect for share price to depreciate when investing in startups and average down, through multiple funding rounds. This is over simplification but so long as the share price bounce back at or above 20c when production begins (as I'm sure you've noticed share price shoots up well past previous highs with other mining companies when they transitioned from developer to producer). Teaching commercial status is key at it means revenue- you can't really measure a company's worth without real income.
Further, OPEX will always be forecasted paid for by revenue cashflow. CAPEX will always be funded via capital raise cashflow. They are not always interchangeable (as some appears to suggest which shows their lack of experience but it's too much of an effort to point out). It's obvious when someone is inexperienced from what they say, at least for those in the business. It's akin to a Uni student telling surgeon how to perform heart surgery. The surgeon will just nod and say "ok" if/when they argue back. So I would suggest for yourself and everyone who's reading this to research similar Canadian projects and check out their commercials, read up on PFS, learn how to read PFS properly or get someone to help you, and treat the industry, my industry, with professional intention and respect. This is business. People's jobs on the line. People's future depends on our success. It's not a pokie machine.
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