Price Last Week - Last week we moved from 4.5 to 3.9, so a decent loss. Previous week as well we moved from 4.8 to 4.5 - a small loss. But now two weeks of losses. We are still up from our level of 1.4/1.6 since the break out though.
Volume Last Week - It has decreased since we had a break out around 3 weeks back. Average volume is now for this week is hovering around under 30m shares with another low of 16m on Friday since break out time. Volume may have to get better if buyers come in.
Event/Announcement Last Week - We had an Investor Presentation slide this mid week. At this stage I am not sure who the target was, but many times these are released prior to some finance deals - like CR, offtake, partnership etc. Or it could be just a marketing work to let more know about us. I am not sure what was the target this time, but best to keep all options open at this stage.
PFS Anticipation - So we are all waiting for the PFS. It has been repeated a number of times in announcement, Webinar, Investor Presentation that it will be done by Q4 2023. So in the next 4 weeks. The odds of this getting delayed should be low, considering management had ample opportunities to change the narrative if it was not going to be ready. The detractors will say there is still a good chance it may not happen or not happen in full form, just based on past performance of management. Hence always keep mind open. So again, very good chance of having PFS within 4 weeks, possibly in next 2 weeks as after that its holiday season etc - so I am thinking maybe this or next week - most likely, but could go to end of month.
So how may market react to PFS? As always, depends on the numbers. Based on the tone, body language and narrative used by management, my gut feel is that the numbers will be good, even if not spectacular - though the door is open for that. If the numbers were not going to be good, then overall approach towards Prairie would have been different, making it a low-key affair. Management is trying to aggressively promote the narrative of Prairie being a game change in North America Lithium equation. You do that when you have something in your pocket which is giving you confidence. But as again, detractors may say, we need to see it happen to believe it.
So what happens if the numbers are good in PFS? I have a feeling we may go to the next level, both in terms of advancement of the project as well as in terms of SP. Advancement means, the PFS itself can be a selling point initially for offtake partners etc. In the Investor Presentation it has been said that financing of Prairie production is for H2 2024, so still a while away. But small alliances to get some more funding till that time may happen. We had $10m at end of September, so chances of talk of finance should come towards Q2 2024 but its always possible anytime. If we get a lot of interest due to PFS, it will be evident, but will also be a confirmation that the path which has been specified is working and on right track. In terms of SP its very difficult to say how much we may gain, but considering our market cap is around $130m, anything between 100% to 200% is possible - not in one day but over a period of time. The other thing is that even if numbers are good, there may be many skeptical about it. We can't change that and if that happens, will have to deal with it. Sometimes it takes a number of steps to overcome those in doubt - so that process may have to follow.
Personally - As I mentioned I had got out a lot of my trading stocks when 5 didn't look like holding. I still hold a lot of stock which I usually keep for long, don't trade, so still have those. I have bought back a fair few oppies but not heads. I want to see a decisive action on price first, as I feel its still consolidating (some may call distribution) and hence indecisive. I have kept my cash ready and have not bought other stocks, as you could see in the Weekly Report.
So what may happen next week? Price has held good for now. For three days 3.8 was held. But we have not been able to get out of this zone. Volume is not very high. If we were to go in positive direction, first step would be to get towards mid 4s and then above 5. If we were to weaken for whatever reason, I am hoping 3.8 is strong support now, and then 3.5/3.6 should hopefully be it. But best to have an open mind as I have seen price not matching expectations, both up and down in many stocks.
Lithium Weekly Report - For those interested how stock is tracking against other Lithium stocks or who hold multiple Lithium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 96 ASX Li stocks. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.
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