Is that it - or more to come?Yes AZL lost 2 pips to finish on...

Is that it - or more to come?

Yes AZL lost 2 pips to finish on 3.2c. Our volume was very good, just over 106m shares traded. Open at 3.4, touched 2.9 and finished somewhere in the middle at 3.2.

Another day that may look surprising, but it is not unusual for this type of price action to happen after CR. On 17th December @BRProject had asked what I think will be the price action after Trading Halt is removed on CR. This is what I wrote on 17th :

There has been different price action at different times after CR raise. Sometimes there is a push to the upside for many to get out on decent gain. Many times, the share price is pushed towards CR price, and can go below as well, so 3 and below is a possibility if it plays that way.

So how was the price action today? We touched 2.9 which was the effective price a CR buyer has paid for now (3.4 heads and minus 0.5 for oppies). But not much trade on 2.9. Yesterday I had written that after support of 3.5 is broken, I was expecting a play to 3.1 and oppies to 0.9. Heads went slightly lower than I thought, but matched what I thought on 17th as my first impression of what could possibly happen where I mentioned it could just below 3. Oppies touched 0.9 as I was anticipating, if we were to go down. So not unusual reaction till now.
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I know many may not like this price action. Its like a CR. When its announced, most people don't like it - because its usually at a discount. But once its over, you feel much better that you have got so much money kitty, so no CR pressure for sometime etc. Same feeling I was having today. I had a gut feel that a sell may happen. Yesterday was bigger. I was anticipating another sell today - but didn't know how far down we will go. Buyers stepped up strongly at 3, then strongly at 3.1, then at 3.2. Once the day was over, I felt we did very well - have rebounded strongly. So with another small sell left, I feel soon we could start moving higher, first over 3.5 which I am thinking may happen soon, then 4. Key is to get over 4.5/4.6 - after that we may have a good flow. Lets see, that's the good path. Bad path - uhmm? don't want to think. But its everyone's own money and I am hoping everyone is thinking for themselves.
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Many may think that PFS is so close, why would people sell. My guess is that many of these sophs/professionals and brokers, they are not wedded to a sector/stock etc. Brokers ask them, they get in, with some assurance that they may not lose money. Many times a quick gain is good enough for most. They are not invested in AZL as such, or its PFS, drill, etc. They participate in CR because they can, and exit in profit if they can. Just my thinking, could be wrong, so please dyor.
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Yesterday I had written that roughly 66m CR shares were still to be sold, so we needed a volume over 100m. We got that today, at 106m. It doesn't mean that all sellers are gone. Also, my numbers are assumption, so may have a factor of +/-20%. Also, once the sell happens, other punters also look for exit on weakness, which I had factored in slightly. So I feel we are now on the business end of CR sell (other type of sell can still happen - markets tanking, bad announcement etc). Regarding those CR shares who want to sell - I reckon we are down to 20 to 30m left, so should be another day or so.
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So 3 more days left for PFS, if it is to happen by December end. Based on couple of my thoughts, I hope its not on Wednesday. Firstly, we still have a small amount of CR sell to happen - my feeling is it will be over by Wednesday. Secondly, these type of sells usually last 3 days (just probability, there is no guarantee). We will complete 3 days on Wednesday. I would like this down pressure to get over so that there are no major hurdles if we receive good news.
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Personally, I bought more heads today at 3.1, my average yesterday was 3.4, today it is 3.3 - so am down as of today's price. I also picked a fair few oppies at 1 - yesterday I was thinking I will just play more heads, had thought will pick some if it reaches 0.9, but couldn't resist and picked a decent chunk today at 1. My average is just around 1 for oppies, so am also down in oppies - so down on both heads and oppies for now - but this is only my new purchase, I was lucky enough to have a sizeable gain when I exited last week. But every phase is new phase. I always look like that in terms of my trading, risk - etc. So I know I am down for now. There is a bit of risk, which is there with most stocks, but at this stage I am cautiously optimistic - I still believe that chances of going much higher is greater than chances of going much lower. So am playing probability - and as always, I believe we need luck as well - so hoping Lady Luck is on our side.
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So what may happen next week? Any event based news is always unpredictable. But based on what we have seen and read - odds of a good PFS is more - but its just probability. We have to see its good. We have to see market likes. We have already been bashed down due to CR, so chances of going much down is not much, but chances of going much higher is very good. So risk/reward is good from here. We have also done 50% retracement from our recent high of 5.8 to 2.9 (it is so exact, isn't it), so hoping chartists may also like it and believe that we can have a very strong reversal which can go much higher than our recent high of 5.8. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.