Oh, so much drama while I was away.
I was on a break since last weekend. I had mentioned that in the Weekly Reports (SYA/AGE/ENR) I did last weekend. I could just do the figures on the Weekly Report and no commentary, to keep it short. So am back today, was trading this week, but not enough time to post (and also to have my daughter in good humour, so that all attention is to her in a break rather than HC)
So where are we? In panic mode or holding for now? Definetly some nerves being tested for those still holding. Wouldn't be surprised if some got out - its fair as price is weak and everyone has to take care of themselves, their risk/reward. Li sector has been smashed further this week, and its not helping any Li stock. So for all Li holders its still a very trying and turbulent time. I can read the same thing across so many Li stocks - lot of people are in stress, have lost heaps of their hard earned money. I really feel for each of us in that situation. There is no fun in losing money and I wish my best that one day the tide may turn and people not only recoup their losses, but actually make some coins.
So where are we? How are we facing the Li tornado which is flattening most Li stocks? Certainly we can't be immune to that. So we are also facing the storm, but maybe with a brave face.
So I am just recapping what I wrote on the post on 1st Jan as a note for myself and to see how we are tracking.
So I have set myself some small targets to se if we are going in right direction. There maybe hiccups and I will adapt accordingly. So what are they.
- Get over 3.5 with 1 to 2 weeks. At this stage I am cautiously optimistic of this being achieved.
- Get over 4 in 2 to 4 weeks. Odds are not bad, and in fact I feel in front, but needs to revaluate based on new info as we go
- Get over 4.5. I feel if we start moving up, sentiment may change and new punters may join us. So if we cross 4, there is a chance a wave may get us over stiff resistance at 4.5 and take us straight to 5.
- Hold 2.9 if we go down. At this stage I feel 80% chance we may hold
- If we lose 2.9, we hold 2.5. I feel more than 90% chance that it may hold. Risk/reward gets so good from here that buyers may step in
- There is also a very good likelihood that we may spend some more time in the current zone of trading
So based on my assessment, we were on the last line of defence for last few days. We missed 2.9 which I felt had 80% chance to hold. I had a final number 2.5, which I thought we have more than 90% chance to hold. So have we held that? Theoretically yes, as we have closed above 2.5 in last 3 days, though on Wednesday, we did touch 2.4 intra-day. So after seeing a near miss, how I am feeling? I still feel there is a good chance we may hold. The Li tornado flattening all stocks has come and played its part. We don't know whether there is more in store - it can happen, sentiment is very weak. But many stocks have lost a lot, it can still fall further, but risk/reward starts getting better after this big fall. But as I always say, I follow price action, so I will play accordingly.
Was there anything good in last couple of days? Yes, 2.5 is held, and somewhat strongly. Today there was a line wipe of 2.8 and next number 2.9 was to get into play. But some punters are still spooked so we may have to try some other day. What this says is that there are still some big buyers who are ready to take a stand. I had written that one reason 2.5 may hold is because the risk/reward gets very good - so maybe that is in play.
Personally, it was a very mixed feeling. Last Weekly Report where I put my commentary etc was on 23rd December. I always write about my personal situation. At that time my portfolio was 40% Uranium as I wrote that day. Things started hotting up, so by couple of days back, 60% of my portfolio was Uranium. While Li tornado was here, Uranium was basking in bright sunshine. The best 3 days of rise in last 3 days. Today I exited around 80% of my U stocks. I know there are many U bulls who are fanatic and I may be shot down for this remark, but I always play level to level. I had around 35% gain on a very large holding, and I felt its good for a round and to take a pause and reassess. I will buy back my U stocks if it can sustain the run. So what did I do? I bought a lot of Li stocks today. Again I may be shot down for this remark as Li sector is in a miserable position. So have taken a risk. Will play with soft hands - if I see further slide then maybe take up to 5% loss and get out. So lets see. They say "sell when others are buying and buy when others are selling" - so am trying that, doesn't mean it will be successful, but giving it a go. Regarding AZL, when 2.9 was not looking like holding, I did sell a portion at 2.9, but bought back at 2.5. So my head average reduced from 3.2 to 3.1 - not much but everything counts. Also bought a lot of oppies at 0.5/0.6/0.7 - so my oppies average is now around 7.5 from just over 9. Only problem. I have become overweight and I am hoping we have some form of run so that I can be in a comfortable position. So currently down on both heads and oppies. I have taken some risks, I am hoping it comes all right. But anything can happen, so please dyor.
.
So what may happen next week? Don't know, to be frank. The situation is so volatile that I don't think anyone can predict, best we can is hope for. So I am hoping the type f trading we have seen in the last 2 days continues. First step is to get over 2.9. But critical number is 3.5 - I have been saying that as long as we are under 3.5, our situation will remain uncertain. But I can feel the tide is turning. We need some big pockets, some line wipes. It can happen, but we may need assistance of Li sector sentiment to turn as well - at least neutral rather than gravely pessimistic which is now. If that happens, our 3.5 target will not be far away. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)