Big Sandy resource size = 4 million tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent. In ground value of $200 billion or thereabouts.Production = 20,000 tonnes per year X US$30,000 per tonne = US$600million per year
With a price/earnings ratio (PE) of 8 = $4,800,000,000/ 2 billion shares = $2.40 per share.
Allow a 25% discount for debt (including capitalraise) and we're looking good for $1.80 per share once drilling is complete andwe have a JORC and a successful research facility built. This could all happenby end of calendar 2023.The current spot price of 99.5 per cent lithium carbonate is US$60,000per tonne. I’ve discounted this spot price by 50 percent to account forcontract pricing.
When looking at Big Sandy, and using very conservativeassumptions (including a lithium contract price that is half the current spot price)then the EBITDA from just one year is about equal to around double AZL’scurrent enterprise value (EV).
Another way of looking at the future possibleshare price is EBITDA. For example, Lynas Corporation trades at 16 X its EBITDA.So come 2024 or thereabouts and if AZL trades at the same 16 times EBITDAmetric, the EV would be $4.8 billion. That's 12 bags from the current EV of $0.4billion. It all looks better if you factor in more realistic lithium pricing, convert US dollars to Australian dollars (divide $4.8 billion by 0.70) and anything that Lordsburg may add.
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