AZL General Discussion, page-19799

Testing the supply?

Yes, AZL lost 1 pip to finish on 3.5. Our volume was not very high, just over 26m shares traded.

So what was happening today? I feel it is checking supply. There still seems to be some supply. we made a good start to reach 3.8, but then had to give it way. We finished at day's low. So from chart perspective it may not be looking great.

So why couldn't we move up today after a start? There could be two reasons -

First, there are some genuine sellers who want out, for a number of reasons, could be - like want out of stock, want out of sector, want out of market - all the normal reason for one to sell. We have had a good rise and many could have been CR holders from 2.5 with free oppies - even at this level they can make over 80% gain. A big sell on oppies today, maybe same selling heads as well, but we will not know, and its not important. So not sure, but feel its not unusual sell at this stage

Second is sentiment. There are usually lot of sentiment traders. When the stock price is going down, they don't feel comfortable and many become a bit concerned and they go with the flow. So we could be seeing that as well. So another not so unusual thing.

So why is this level important? We are in a very critical zone. The number 3.5/3.6 is important, just based on my interpretation and I could be wrong. When we were rising from 2s we came to 3.5, got stalled here. Then we retreated back to 2.7 before taking it out. Same when we were coming down after touching 5, we reached 3.5, held it and then made a new high of 5.8. So I feel both with respect to support and resistance, its a key zone.

When can we come out of this level? Based on my understanding of pattern, 3 to 4 days of trading. We have done 2 days now. So I feel in the next day or 2, we could see a move. Which side will it be - of course it will depend on whether there are more buyers or sellers - so we will have to wait, rather than predict and think one way. I always like to keep an open mind and try to follow price action.. Upside we need to move above 4 and towards mid-4s to be reasonably confident that we have managed to do our back test successfully. On weakness, 3.2 can come into play.

Personally - If the price action supports my thinking (pattern, support, resistance, etc), then I become more confident. At this stage I am cautiously optimistic. Our rise had been on very large volume, driven a lot by fundamentals/news as well. This fundamental/news etc has not been negated till now. We are still on the expected path. A good rise sometimes can lead to profit taking, but it doesn't negate the uptrend. So I bought fair few oppies today at 8 and a small number of heads at 3.5. I will add more as I feel we get more confirmation that probability of going up has increased compared to probability of going down. But these are only probabilities (percentage chance), there is no guarantee, anything can happen, so please dyor and check risk/reward.

So what may happen tomorrow? Yesterday Li sentiment was very weak. Today, neutral to slightly positive - but not a strong yes yet. We will also reach the third day around this level. Its just a pattern I follow. Who knows we could be here for a number of days. But based on my pattern, my anticipation grows. So important day for me. I am hoping we make a decisive move up from this level. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.