The industry is new but clear as crystal at the cusp between early adopters to exponential growth of mass market adoption on the bell curve. More so, not a matter "if" with Governments having mandates of automotive electrification. That's indisputable fact. How we get there and when are the questions in every investor and fund manager forecasts. Each to their own on that.
Solid state battery require more lithium, not less. Further, it will take many years of development before it's ready for commercialisation. BMW forecast, publicly announced, is not until 2030 or just before. So current battery make up stand as is, with all the needed greenfield factories currently being built to that effect. Those factories won't just switch to a promise of new tech, they get built to serve proven commercially viable products.
I like the full EV Toyota will be releasing in Australia later this year (look it up) as I think Toyota, not BYD or Tesla, leads the game despite appearances. They simply still profit handsomely from the Hilux etc to go full throttle on EV but make no mistake, Toyota was first to commercially build an EV and have been in this "new industry" far longer than any other company. Just think about it from a proprietary perspective. Tesla "leads" due to intellectual property which they give out to everyone freely, as it's open source. Toyota does not (so the market don't know much about what they have other than what they release).
What we know is, solid state or not, there is not enough lithium production currently as well as planned if to serve the demand in the future. DLE is looking to upend that. Nevertheless, Aussie product still reign supreme due to spodumene is of highest quality that are perfect for lithium batteries (hence China can't upset Australia because Aussie lithium at least right now is irreplaceable if to find the cheapest but best raw material product in the market).
Not all lithium are made the same. That's actually what "the market" doesn't appreciate or care to know much about. Different location/source = different lithium. Canadian lithium sits as high as Aussie lithium product although not as cheap to produce albeit still different but how it later turns into end product. Other. than brine vs hard rock. Still, in my view Canadian brine is better than South American and VUL lithium end products.
Here's a basic diagram for better understanding.
As the market matures, there will be better understanding but this is why I think today's Aussie fund managers are lazy. At least one reason. This due diligence is not something you can simply Google and would need to sit down with inside experts like Rabe to get intimate on how lithium end products become end products, before looking to see where the raw materials can come from and then investing on them.
Hope this helps. Cheers
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