Weekly Review AZL (and other Li Stocks) - 4th Feb 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of other Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of other Li Stocks in my analysis.
I have been doing this weekly reports for my another Li stock for some time. I now feel have a decent holding in AZL so doing it here as well. As it covers across 23 Li stocks, most of the content is same, I changed narrative where I talk about AZL. I will be putting this Weekly Report in this new thread and we can continue to use other threads as we are doing.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
There are no changes from last week in the list of stocks I have covered. I have a feeling next week I may have a couple more in the list.
Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:
Weekly Review
I have covered following:- Weekly Percentage change
- Yearly Percentage Change for 2022
- Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached to current SP
Key Observations:
Weekly Percentage change- This was an average week for Li stocks. There was a gain this week after having 2 weeks of losses.
- There was a gain of 4% across 23 stocks I track. Last week there was loss of 13%,
- Of 23 stocks I track, 4 stocks were in red for the week, better than last time when all stocks were in red.
- AZL had the BEST weekly gain of 19% of the 23 stocks I am tracking
- Last week we had a decline of 18%, so it has brought us back, nearly, to two weeks back (16c now to 16.5c two weeks back).
- On an average week AZL did good gains, I am hoping to see big gains in a good week.
Yearly Percentage change
- Decent gains for the year with a weekly rise of 4%
- Of 23 stocks I track, 7 are in red for the year. Last week 8 were in decline for the year
- The average gain across 23 stocks was 25%. Last week it was a 21% gain, so slight improvement. But a further week back it was 40%, so still some catching to do. And even this gain, the figure though is skewed by CRR and ESS which have had triple digit gains
- AZL now has an yearly gain of 52%, which I feel is great
- CRR still leads the pack with a gain of 163% for the year
Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start
- Most stocks are still away from their ATH. 3 weeks back most stocks were close to ATH - a reflection of 2 bad weeks.
- Last week 3 stocks were within 10% of ATH, now there are none
- In previous weeks I used to mention how many stocks were within 10% of their ATH. Now there are none. But 3 out of 23 stocks are within 20%.
- On average of 23 stocks, the SP is 26% away from ATH (Last week was 29%, so slight gain here)
- AZL is 22% drop from its ATH, better than average of 26%
IMPORTANT NOTE
- Of the 4 stocks that declined this week, 3 were ESS, CRR and GL1. These 3 stocks are among the highest gainers for the year with 141, 163 and 57%. So there is a pattern here. These stocks have run very hard this year and made spectacular gains, so a slight retrace might be "normal" or "healthy".
- The overall gain is skewed by a number of Explorers which have made good gains. If we look at Producers or Near Producers, heavy hitters of ASX Li stocks with comparatively large market cap, they are struggling.
- So big tickers like AKE, AVZ, LKE, LTR, PLS, SYA are either in red for the year or very slightly ahead. This might be a reflection that they made good gains last year and they are slowing down and tracking ASX behaviour more, knowing that DOW/ASX had few bad weeks.
- So from volatility perspective Explorers and Developers may have more swings in the short term (both gains and losses) - it may also be a reflection of risks they may carry
- So its individual choice and risk appetite to see which to pick
- The Li macro is still strong and looking to get better this year, so would expect the sector to do well - subject to DOW/ASX behaving
Personally
- I had few trades of AZL this week. I am a late entry here with my core holding at 13.5c head and 4.5c oppies. I added some more this week at 15.5c heads and average 6.1c oppies for the week.
- A number of shares I traded for 15-20%, not much, but as I have said before, I like trading and these small trades give me liquidity. And sometimes if you do a number of them, they could add up to something good. Risk is early selling and not making full gains or buy high and stock slides and you don't want to sell, so have to hold. So its individual choice. So traded AVZ, WR1 with the profits, looking for re-entry, though AVZ seems to be running away and sits on my sell price. Picket up a bit more EVR and CRR for trading. Holding a number of others, waiting for better direction before I buy more or sell.
- Also looking to buy some more this week, some new ticker - want to see how the market ASX/DOW behave
Weekly Ahead
- Last week I had mentioned that I expect a volatile week. It turned out to be. I have a feeling that this week will also be volatile. There is a chance we may get good direction towards the end of week
- The global stock market is in turmoil and its created some fear, though with some good DOW days that has considerably decreased. I feel now the fear has decreased to anxiety - that's a good sign
- I know each of us will have our own way of handling this. Some will bail out as per their risk/reward and wait to stabilize, others may think of this as an opportunity to pick up cheap shares or rebalance their portfolio
- Although DOW had a average Friday, but it had wild swings both up and down. Since DOW finally did not drop much, ASX may take that as a good sign, though cautiously
- ASX did a runner in the last few minutes on Friday, lets see if it can keep the momentum
- I feel AZL is getting very strong in the 15-16c zone. I have a feeling it may withstand any bad days in this range. On some good days, I am looking at this making a move, initially crossing 19c base towards a new ATH
- It has been tops turvy few weeks for AZL, lets hope we now keep the momentum up.
- Still turbulent days ahead, but looking to get out of the woods. If one feels so, could be chance to pick up some cheap shares. But definetly not out of the woods yet, so play safe and all the best
(20min delay)
