Weekly Review Li Stocks - 30th Dec 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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Diary - There is no Diary again this week, sorry. I had to do a lot of chopping, moving etc. I am very nimble and volatile, hence anything I hold could be temporary, hence that is not much point. Once markets stabilise, I will have my Diary.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 54 stocks.
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.FINAL REPORT of 2022 - This is the final report for the year 2022. So will just do a review of the year along with the figures.
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.Key data points of 2022:
- For the year 2022, across 54 stocks, average gain was 13%. So if one had invested equal amounts of money in 54 shares, they would have still be ahead with a gain of 13%
- AZL relatively did not have a good 2022 - lost 41% for the year. I had a good run from early teens to early 20s. But after that it has been on a steady decline. I have bought a few more times, some with small gains, and others with small losses. My last few trades were not very good and had to get out in small losses. Overall for me, I was just marginally ahead and the later losses wiped out some of gains I had earlier made. I have very small holding, a lot or so for trading and have not bought big for quite sometime, after getting out at early 8s as I wrote earlier. Currently, its within my buy range now, just want general markets to give some indication/direction that its time to buy for somewhat long term - have not got it till now, hopefully soon
- Nearly half the stocks finished in green, other half in red across 54 stocks
- 3 stocks did really well for the year with average gain of around 240% - LRS, TYX and WR1
- Among medium to big stocks, these did fairly well with around 50% gains - AGY, CXO, GL1, SYA
- Some of the medium to big stocks did not fare well - GLN (-45%), INR (-53%), LTR (-20%), VUL (-39%)
- Some of the other stocks that really did well with close to 50 to 90% gains - ALY, AS2, GT1, QXR, RAS
- Stocks that really didn't do well with losses above 30% - A8G, AZL, CZL, EFE, EUR, EVR, FRS, INF, KZR, LIT, LPD, MQR, NVA
- So overall assessment - (All relative) - Some of the smaller stocks did best but lost big as well - so most volatile as expected. The worry part is some of the big stocks not doing well. But some big stocks had a good time. So overall mixed.
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What will happen in 2023:
- We can only hope that 2023 will be a better year than 2022 - probability is also in favour
- The Li sector is going through the highs and lows. Its become very volatile - reacting to some reports. At this stage we are going through another low of the Li sector.
- The macro still looks quite strong, from a demand perspective. So there is a very good chance that we may reach new highs again in 2023
- The Li prices are still very strong and they nearly doubled in 2022
- General markets were big drivers for the sector, along with certain reports. The general markets should improve sometime during 2023 and that will have a very positive impact on Li stocks
- Early part of 2023 may look similar to 2022. I feel it will be after Q1 that we may see some good gains - but that may also depend on general markets (Indices like SP 500, XJO etc) doing well
- There may still be ups and downs, sometimes big - so volatility can still be high
- There are lot of analysts/finance companies saying that SP 500 has to fall another 12 to 15%. If that happens, we can see markets go lower and bottom, before we see a sustained and significant rise
- There is a good chance based on probability that we may see a bounce in early January to test some resistances. On SP 500, key number is to get over 4030 - there is a chance it may come here and retreat
- Many analysts/finance companies have been proven wrong in 2022. So its best to keep an open mind and follow price action. who knows, the October bottom of 3491 on SP 500 could be the final bottom. There is always a chance for that, even though probability is not good
- My gut feel for 2023 - Topsy turvy first half of the year, getting into the groove in the second half of the year - finishing ahead of 2022 sps
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.Personally: As I have been writing recently, I got out of a number of Li stocks recently in last few weeks when suddenly it looked like Li sector is facing a test. Overall also, I am around 50-60% in cash, and in volatility like this have got out of most of the two sectors that I write - U and Li. I still hold some of my long positions in some Li stocks and also on 1 Li stock have put a lot recently, mainly for trading which may do a runner and is in Canada. To hedge my position, I am now playing stock to stock, and many of my play is for short term - at this stage a number of Oil and gas - but have become very nimble with tight stops. The buy time for both my favourite U/Li sector will come, and I will write when I start buying.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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.Rise from June Bottom:
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(20min delay)