Weekly Review Li Stocks - 19th May 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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NO DIARY THIS WEEK: This week there is no diary. Although I have bought a fair few stocks recently, I am still not sure how long I will hold, hence not putting it out in Diary. If things continue to be positive, then possibly next week.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 73 stocks.
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.This week I have a comparison between Psychology of Market Cycle, 2000 Nasdaq and current Nasdaq in the below. Interesting.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets -
- This week SP 500 finally broke the trading range of 8 weeks or so. It has finally got to 4200 which I had said last week is the key
- Up side - 4300/4350 should be in play now. Down side - As long as 4050 is held it should be fine. A good buffer now
- Only issue is that the rally is still being led by big tech stocks. They are doing most of the lifting. Breadth participation is not good
- Most risk-on assets including resources have not done very well. The difference between these stocks and big stocks is now huge in terms of gains and losses for last year or so
- Most institutional hedge funds also not participating in the rally, in fact still trying to short in large numbers
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What will happen next week - General Markets:
- Monday again could be just sideways for us. Lot of resource stocks were actually down on Friday in US - so some weakness is possible
- Not much economic data that will give a very big move
- Debt ceiling is the biggest catalyst which could make a big move in markets. In 2016 as US debt was downgraded, SP 500 had lost around 20% - though it was short lived
- Seasonally May is not good month for stocks in US - (sell in May and go away). We have not seen anything like that in first three weeks. Will that change towards the end of month or we go against stats?
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Personally: My situation is same as last week, holding a fair few across a range.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- AZL sitting under 5, playing between 4.7 and 5 and between 4.1 to 5.5 for nearly 10 weeks
- Since I exited most in Li in January, I am still waiting for a decisive turn in trend
- AZL has not been able to capitalise on good Li sentiment of recent, may be SPP issue, but still not very good
- Li sector had a moderate week with average gain of 1% across 73 stocks and now flat for the year. US Li stocks also had 1% gain this week.
- The ASX Li rally is not totally broad based in terms of width, so some still have to catch up. Few stocks seem to get ahead of themselves - so the question is - will they fall back or those behind will catchup. Or it may so happen that only certain stocks have a good rise
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Something Interesting, especially for those not feeling very bullish:
- This shows similarity in NASDAQ between 2000 dot com bust and where we are now. Also matching it against Psychology of Stock Market which many may have seen
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.On the left is 2000 Nasdaq at certain stage. On the right is where Nasdaq is now.
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.Here is diagram of Psychology of a Market Cycle. Look at where the Complacency is and compare with above figure.
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.This is again a figure which shows on left hand side 2000 dot com bust from the point of earlier figure - marked in. On the right is what some bears are saying we are heading. Check what happens from Complacency phase in Psychology of Market Cycle.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)