AHC 0.00% 24.0¢ austco healthcare limited

Azure Healthcare Revisited, page-8

  1. 23 Posts.
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    Hi Afterlife,

    You raise some excellent points - essentially it comes down to risk appetite in the investment.

    My logic is to buy at the 7-10 cent range (opportunistically) and divest at the 18-20c cent range (allowing for margin as to where I think fair value resides), with the objective of yielding a 2.5x to 3x return, but acknowledge that it is early into the finalisation of the restructuring process.

    I acknowledge that it is early on into the re-structuring process, that there is minimal volume and support for the equity, however I have balanced this with the relatively low cost the stock. If and when it is validated that the re-structuring process has been validated and cost benefits are being derived and once Tacera Pulse and Tacera RTLS are validated in the market with additional sales, then I would expect that the SP will gain traction.

    I could easily see the price moving to 12-14c upon confirmation of the successful restructure - however at this point, the return would be 50% on the capital investment, versus 2.50x. Equally so, if the restructuring process fails or does not generate the envisioned returns or if the software platform does not meet market expectations then I could see the SP down to 5-6 cents. However, a 25% downside risk, versus a 2.5x potential upside risk seems like a fair investment.

    I previously owned a business, that was a software/electronics business in the acute care hospital space, which had its head office in Perth and in 2007, we relocated our head office functions to the United States - which generated excellent returns (we also had offices in the UK, HK and Denmark).

    So my summary is a buyer < 10c, holder at 11c to 17c and seller at 18c+ - all subject to change as the story unfolds.
 
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