You raise some excellent points - essentially it comes down to risk appetite in the investment.
My logic is to buy at the 7-10 cent range (opportunistically) and divest at the 18-20c cent range (allowing for margin as to where I think fair value resides), with the objective of yielding a 2.5x to 3x return, but acknowledge that it is early into the finalisation of the restructuring process.
I acknowledge that it is early on into the re-structuring process, that there is minimal volume and support for the equity, however I have balanced this with the relatively low cost the stock. If and when it is validated that the re-structuring process has been validated and cost benefits are being derived and once Tacera Pulse and Tacera RTLS are validated in the market with additional sales, then I would expect that the SP will gain traction.
I could easily see the price moving to 12-14c upon confirmation of the successful restructure - however at this point, the return would be 50% on the capital investment, versus 2.50x. Equally so, if the restructuring process fails or does not generate the envisioned returns or if the software platform does not meet market expectations then I could see the SP down to 5-6 cents. However, a 25% downside risk, versus a 2.5x potential upside risk seems like a fair investment.
I previously owned a business, that was a software/electronics business in the acute care hospital space, which had its head office in Perth and in 2007, we relocated our head office functions to the United States - which generated excellent returns (we also had offices in the UK, HK and Denmark).
So my summary is a buyer < 10c, holder at 11c to 17c and seller at 18c+ - all subject to change as the story unfolds.
AZV Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)