it was a conservative view! What if there is a signifcant...

it was a conservative view! What if there is a signifcant improvement in performance from Treasury and Commodities, Equity Markets and Financial Services, which is very likely as the aus market, commodities and global markets have been booming. The Dow cracked 11,000 and the ASX is about to crack 5000. Interest rates are stable and in addition improved performances are expected from Banking and Property and Funds Management. Performance fees from the funds is pretty small factor in the overall picture. Macquarie has a solid and diverse business structure.

As Aspect said “Not all options to achieve higher profits have been cut off. The potential to tap significant hollow logs strewn around MBL was addressed by the comment. The Bank is expected to continue with the sale of substantial seed assets in the calendar year 2006, including the potential for the creation of new specialist funds in Europe, Asia and North America.”

MBL has 30 Mandarin speakers on its staff and the Chinese Government is preparing to allow its domestic insurers to invest in new infrastructure projects. It has also decided to increase investment in airports, a move that has excited MBL. The investment bank has strengthened its resources team in Beijing, to advise Chinese companies looking to invest overseas.

Just look at the future potential
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/3/19/apworld/20060319154500&sec=apworld

http://www.mallesons.com/publications/2006/Feb/8288635W.htm

The conservative estimate on the increase to net profit is 6% by Aspect like you said but Aspect also said earnings potential can be as high as 65%, so it likely that the number will come in somewhere in between.

They also said “Should there be a relative drought in performance fees in FY07 it will be difficult for MBL to make meaningful headway. However the hollow logs could easily replace the performance fees.” The hollow logs are the other business divisions that will be fairing quite well at present in a very good business environment. I have $50,000 alone in managed funds that have grown 11% in the last 6mths. They usually only achieve 15% per annum. But to quote Aspect again, “The fees associated with toll road acquisition activity in Europe and the US are not to be sneezed at and will provide a boost overall fee income outside the base and performance fees from specialist funds.”

Finally, they say, “Interestingly in the past five years the MBL share price has had a dip in the first few months of the year and this has proven to be an opportune time to buy the stock” and 5 out of nine consensus brokers rate the stock ‘buy’ and four ‘hold’.

I am posturing to buy more.

Happy punting.