Up moves on no news are bullish in and of themselves. There is a...

Up moves on no news are bullish in and of themselves. There is a "herd movement" phenomenon in stock trading, as we all know. But, that doesn't add much understanding, does it? What is more interesting is what is driving the herd.

In the present instance, I have been predicting this October up move for months (check my old postings and you'll confirm this) and I called the turn about 10 days ago.

What IS driving the move?

Simple. We are now close enough to the March announcement that positioning to ride the speculative run-up makes sense. And that's what's happening now, althought the speed and intensity of the trading does surprise me. I had expected the start of the run-up to be more tentative. But, hey, I'll take it as I find it.

The situation now looks to me to indicate a $2.00 target by sometime in December. By March, pre-announcement, we could be looking at $3.00 a share.

But, there will be major corrections along the way.

Whether you want to stay in until AFTER the March announcement or dump at one of the intervening highs will depend on how confident you are that the AOD9604 trial results will be positive - and just how positive you think they might be.

If the results show the same efficacy shown in December 2004, but with more focused data clusters, which this trial is designed to produce, Big Pharma WILL be calling with deals that might set records.

Have a read of the article "The Thin Pill" in the new Wired for a sense of what is at stake for big pharma when it comes to the obesity market. A product like this will NOT be overlooked.