Your post is confirmation of the thinking I have been commenting on , I think there has been a quite a few sellers over the last 6 months that got out when the growth stopped in the 2nd half of 2012 and as Joewolf said it probably took longer than they thought to consolidate the acquisitions than they originally thought , that and a few other points like opps pressure , and the big National Noms seller is IMO why the stock did fall from 40c to 20c
The company was growing strongly prior to the set back and is now growing again , and I feel that health care is absolutely one of very few growth sectors .
I agree the revenue forecast of $17 m is only up a little on the 2010/2011 results of $15 m , however when the downturn that took place it looked like revenue might of been $12 m this year had the revenue of the slowdown continued . On that basis I see them as back in 20% ++ growth
They have not run away from a $50 m revenue target in 3 years , and I expect well over $20m in 13/14 , on the margins of 45% this is far from a mature business that I agree would only sell for 4 to 5 times EBIT but one that could attract NPAT of 12 to 13
That said for a company I believe will get 20% ++ growth on revenue and NPAT I think 10 times NPAT or 7 times EBIT on 12/13 numbers is conservative and what i think it will work towards once the numbers forecast become actualls .
That is where my .33c fair value was derived
Appreciate your post and confirmation why you held and sold it confirms why the sell down did occur .
I also appreciate your comments you think the management is good
PGC Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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