Did a few rough calculations that might be of interest. (Or not....)
I have used Haplos figures for break down of figures (which may or may not be accurate.)
Couple of disclaimers:
These are only rough numbers, if you disagree so be it. Please no abuse or accusations of down-ramping, up-ramping, side-ramping or ramp-ramping.
I know I should have used customer receipts instead of sales figures, but it is easier this way. In the longer term they should balance out (assuming no bad debts!).
They do not match up with Morgans figures. Make of that whatever you like.
I have ignored vaccines. Hopefully they can partner up for any additional cash needed for these.
I have not included the research tax credit thingy.
I have assumed Medical Devices growing by 2 per cent quarter on quarter.
I have assumed CC sales grow at 30% quarter on quarter.
I have assumed Total operating and investing cash flows will be the same as last quarter with only the additional outgoings for additional materials for the above assumptions i.e 8.3 million + cost of extra medical bits + cost of cow bits.
I don't know if much needs to be spent on factory or additional staff for additional CC patch production. This could really screw these figures. You have been disclaimed!!
I have assumed 90 % GP on CC.
I have assumed 30 % GP on Medical devices (not much of effect given the small increase I am assuming).
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
| 1 |
Quarter |
Med Sales |
CC Sales |
Total for qtr |
Total for year |
Cash Flow |
Cash at end qtr |
| 2 |
q4 15 |
1.76 |
1.04 |
2.80 |
9.95 |
-5.53 |
25.87 |
| 3 |
q1 16 |
1.80 |
1.35 |
3.15 |
|
-5.25 |
20.62 |
| 4 |
q2 16 |
1.84 |
1.76 |
3.60 |
|
-4.86 |
15.76 |
| 5 |
q3 16 |
1.88 |
2.30 |
4.18 |
|
-4.36 |
11.4 |
| 6 |
q4 16 |
1.92 |
3.00 |
4.92 |
15.85 |
-3.72 |
7.68 |
| 7 |
q1 17 |
1.96 |
3.90 |
5.86 |
|
-2.90 |
4.78 |
| 8 |
q2 17 |
2.00 |
5.07 |
7.07 |
|
-1.71 |
3.07 |
| 9 |
q3 17 |
2.04 |
6.60 |
8.64 |
|
-0.44 |
2.63 |
| 10 |
q4 17 |
2.08 |
8.58 |
10.66 |
32.23 |
+1.35 |
3.98 |
My take on this is that a Capital Raising can be avoided...........just.
(In reality though, they would probably need to raise a small sum in Q1 17 to be prudent.)
Subject to following:
Sales of CC must increase by 30% quarter on quarter. (Or better)
Costs must not increase at all (except as described above for additional material.)
Management needs to control costs. If they increase even slightly, a CR is a certainty.
The next quarterly will see if they can achieve those two aims.
(20min delay)