EBITD (earnings before income tax and depreciation) in the first...

EBITD (earnings before income tax and depreciation) in the first year for the first tower will be 24 x 365 x 200 x 0.63 x $95.5 = (approx) $105 million where 0.63 is the optimistic capacity factor from the Glendale PPA. Take away $5 million for maintenance costs and we get very approximately $100 million per annum EBITD.

The current market cap (MC) for EVM is 3.8c x 402,832,945 (shares on issue) = (approx) $15 million. The number of shares on issue with the unlisted options expiring on Sep 15 2014 is 524,461,667, so the future fully diluted market cap (FDMC) is currently about $20 million.

There is speculation how much equity EVM will have in the first tower, so I will use a range of options from 5% (very low, not likely IMO) to 50% (very highly optimistic and not likely either). I will use the forward P/E ratio = FDMC/EBITD and then speculate on the SP for a PE of 10...

5% (gives earnings of approx $5 million) gives a PE ratio of 20/5 = 4 (SP at PE of 10 = 9.5c)
10% = PE ratio of 20/10 = 2 (SP at PE 10 = 19c)
15% = PE ratio of 1.3 (SP = 28c)
20% = PE ratio of 1 (SP = 38c)
25% = PE ratio of 0.8 (SP = 48c)
30% = PE ratio of 0.67 (SP = 57c)
40% = PE ratio of 0.5 (SP = 76c)
50% = PE ratio of 0.4 (SP = 95c)

P.S. The above is for just one tower! We know SCPPA has an option on a second tower and we know other countries (maybe even Australia) are interested, so draw your own conclusions there.

P.P.S. LCOE calculations still coming once I get my next assignment done.