back of the envelope valuation., page-2

Good morning GSW

Here is my valuation

I assume current production of 10,000 units a day multiply this figure by 250 days (365 days minus weekends and holidays) gives me 2.5 million units a year.

Very conservative net profit $1.00 a unit= 2.5 mil profit times PE of 15 equals markrt cap of 37.5 mil

As this figure is roughly twice the current maket cap based on the above figures this would suuport a share price of approx 10 cents.

Now if we add

1. CHINA
2. MEXICO
3. EUROPE
4. FDA Approval

I think if we said 100,000 units a day within the next 12 months is possible.

Multiply the above figures by 10 gives me a share price of about $1.00

Please note as we have no hard figures to work on these are only my estimates.

The other wild cards that are not being taken into account are any new saliva based tests ( ie a saliva test for diabetes,you would sell more than the oraline drug test.)that are mentioned in past company reports.

I beleive this stock has a very good future but we just have to be patient,good businesses are like a good bottle of wine, they take time to mature.

With prices back below 5cents
I like a few others have been topping up my already large holding this week.

Hope this creates some interesting discussion.

Cheers