back of the envelope valuation., page-3

Thanks SSV for your post.

I couldn't agree with you more.
My figures were probably based on about 12 t 24 months down the track. But remember if the company is worth that down the track the market is always 12 to 15 months forward looking.
My assumptions were that as soon as we start to see some figures/sizable contracts, more specific valuations can be given; however, with the current back log, if they do ramp up production I was estimating that they would be wasting their time unless they could scale it up by about 10 fold.
A smart management would be all over production ramping as contracts are useless unless you can produce the product.

I have full confidence in the company and I certainly have my money where my mouth is. My current view is that it is a no brainer to buy at these levels, but I have always said, it will be a difficult one to know when to sell.

By the way, I view the success of HGR to be likened to being a little bit pregnant. It's either all or nothing and the risk reward ration to me is extremely attractive given the value of the drug testing market world wide and also you don't just test one person once, its ongoing.

cheers