back of the envelope valuation

Before you all complain that this is ramping or down-ramping, depending on your view, let me start by saying
a) Just my opinion
b) I don't own AMU currently, I have traded it a few times, and I will look to do so again

Current 1P reserves are around:
5.2MMBO (adjusted for Raccoon sale and last 6 month's prod)
6.1BCF (adjusted for last 6 month's production)

Say US$25/B for 1P oil and US$2.50/MMCF for 1P gas

Value = US$145m
Less debt of US$65m (from memory, ignores other minor assets/liabilities)

Equity value of proved reserves = US$80m or almost A$0.50 per share, pre 2P reserves and head office

Assume 2P reserves are the same as 1 July 2006
8.6MMBO
6.1BCF

Say US$10/B for 2P oil and US$1/MMCD for 2P gas

Value = US$92m or A$0.55/share

Offsetting this is around A$4-5m of head office costs, negative value of say A$25m or say A$0.15 per share

Therefore, indicative value of c.A$0.90, before any value for exploration.

Overall, I think the company is pushing credibility to say the market is only valuing 1P reserves (I would agree if the share price was around 40c) but at 60c the market is not fully valuing 2P reserves, let alone exploration potential.

I would be a buyer if it were not for market conditions - there are other bargains too, and no small company is going to be able to withstand market sentiment. That said downside is low and upside is significant.

As I said at the start, just my opinion. Hope this helps
Monty