Firstly my analysis is back of the envelope. DCF is much better,...

Firstly my analysis is back of the envelope. DCF is much better, but you need much more info, including royalty and tax rates, flow rates and reserves by well etc etc

I don't think US$25 and US$2.50 are particularly conservative - see US$20-25 reference in AMU announcement on 10 Oct (not clear if they are referencing 1P or 2P). Yesterday's Woodside acquisition (in Aust) was US$18.70 for 2P. A value above US$25/B for 1P is certainly possible. My total value was US$237m vs your US$264m - only 10% difference and I accept that I could easily be under by 10% e.g. 2P can vary - depends how quickly and at what cost 2P will be converted to 1P.

AMU spends a lot on exploration - recent results are mixed. Current well is important. Overall, consistent with this thread, I do think it is cheap, but needs a trigger, and the only real trigger I can see is a sale of the company - does not look like management's first step to me though - not enough shares and too much in the way of fees and personal income at stake. I watch with interest.

FYI, Hedging is in latest quarterly - unfortunately out of the money on oil and IR. Don't be lazy with your analysis or you will lose unless you are lucky.

Just my opinion
Monty