back of the envelope....

Hi all,

Thought I'd have a go at working out some numbers for ITC based solely on current Growler production and impending Snatcher production (based on Snatcher-1 initial results).

Growler:

Current Production: 1150BOPD
ITCs share (40%): 460BOPD
Cost of production: A$22/barrel (as per ITC presentation Jan'09)
Current TAPIS (Aug 6th 2009): A$95/barrel

Total Revenue/day: 460*(95-22)= A$33580/day

Assuming 300 days production per year: A$10,074,000

Snatcher-1:

[Assuming similar cost of production (Birkhead channel]

Current Flow Rate: 218BOPD
ITCs share (40%): 87BOPD
Cost of production: A$22/barrel
Current TAPIS (Aug 6th 2009): A$95/barrel

Total Revenue/day: 87*(95-22)= A$6351/day

Assuming 300 days production per year: A$1,905,300

Total Revenue: A$12,000,000

Now for the costs (as per June quarterly excluding Production costs)

June Quarterly: A$1,800,000
Crude Annual Estimate: A$7,500,000

Net Profit: A$4,500,000

Market Cap (796,186,[email protected]): A$41,401,690

Current PE: 9.2

Now.. the annual cost estimate is very crude.. cold be higher or much lower depending on level of exploration activity and development costs of snatcher etc.

But, this does not take into account Growler increasing production from 1150BOPD, Snatcher field producing more than 218BOPD (keeping in mind Snatcher-1 could produce double the current stated amount and Snatcher-2 and Snatcher-3 to be drilled..), Tigercat suggested to produce 200BOPD with EPT to be done, and any other successful wells drilled from the processing of the 3D seismic later this year..

It is therefore not inconceivable that ITC will be producing 1000BOPD themselves with Growler upgraded and with a little luck with the Snatcher field, alone.

That's A$22million per year in total oil sales!! (on some conservative assumptions mind you too...)

If the Western Margin Oil Fairway concept is proved up.. and then producing.. watch out!!

I would appreciate comments from the fool-hardy ITC expert commentators..

Cheers
A.