Lol. So at $5, assuming no more capital raises are required due...

Lol.

So at $5, assuming no more capital raises are required due to making no profit, MC would be 17 times current value ~ 10b

Conservative P/E ratio of 15 as in 4-5years PLS should have reached maturity of it's operation.
so 680m AUD p/a profit.

Assume they manage to somehow sort their sheeet out and get 6mtpa plant operational, achieving nameplate recovery and throughput and selling 100% of production (all things they have not been able to do). Then a 6mtpa plant should produce 1.3mt of concentrate.

This implies an AISC margin of over $520 aud. Given AJM has shown that even with a cash cost similar to what PLS has forecast (approx 350USD - their debt repayments, tax, amortisation etc make it a break even operation at lithium price of $600USD/t = = 875aud.

Therefore, PLS would need to achieve $525 more than this price for the sale of it's spod. Which would be $1400 AUD/t which is close to $1000USD/t. Is that your forecast price for spod concentrate then? It's wildly more high than any other producer of 6% spod concentrate with Fe content over 1% including PLS itself.

If spod conc was that price almost every lithium operation would get funding for expansion as they would all be economical. Extra supply would then weaken demand and the price drops (exactly what occured about 18months ago). Basic supply demand economics.

My figures which were conservative is still a 300-500% return in 3years which still assumes no more credit raises and that PLS does get an operation 6mtpa plant achieving nameplate and recovery. I don't think PLS has much downside from here - low 20's at worst. But people might as well simmer expectations for 6 months, as until they can prove tangible progress towards reduce opex and increase recoveries towards nameplate. Additionally they need customers to take 100% of production like AJM (not a holder).

Cognisant of the plans to vertically integrate/JV with conversion capacity which is 100% the right direction. And yes, should that come to fruition this should alleviate the S/P pressure at some capacity. But shouldn't be banked on. Much like 50% sale of assets was banked on. Which then results in CATL due diligence and placement at 20% of that figure. Or that nameplate production would have been achieved and PLS turning a profit with stage 2 fully funded 6 months ago. To which they have no switched the plant off and are spending more capital and won't be turning a profit until Q4 IF they achieve opex of 350USD.

By all means 'remain resolute' - Resolutely throwing capital away if you've been averaging down as you've indicated from 80c.

*disclosure I made recent purchases in the 30's assuming the placement would set the floor. These were subsequently stopped out at a small loss. Only now holding original free carried purchase from 2017 .

T/A wise;

On a positive note; LIT ETF looks as close as it has to breaking out the wedge. Rising tide may lift all boats - which would be a great result for PLS and the sector.





PLS needs to get back above 29c and hold & then get out of the wedge.
Yes the stochastics are oversold, but they have been for weeks which means consistent and strong downtrend. Need the MACD to go green and the stochastics to get into the purple area.

No support until 22c which would be my next buy target from a technical perspective.

SF2TH