For an analysis of speculation or rather lack of it (and the mathematical models used to search for it )in the oil market see www.cftc.gov Interim report on crude oil from the interagency task force. This does not mean that the U.S. government is not about to take action against speculators both presidential candidates wish it. The impact will be more red tape increases in costs therefore increases in oil price although probably small and possibly the movement of more money into alternative energy sources Combine this with the Chatham House report on the coming oil supply crunch www.chathamhouse.org.uk which points out some inefficiencies in the global oil and gas search industry and most important of all on page 28 lists the july 2008 iea monthly oilmarket report as showing a defieict of 0.4 mb/d for 2008 on their low figure projections The deficiet holding in 2009 despite an almost 30% rise projected in saudi oil supply in 2009.After that it could get real nasty because the IEA sees most opec production being flat and non opec falling
