I hope they hit 40mtpaAssuming they get it which I think it the...

I hope they hit 40mtpa

Assuming they get it which I think it the plan by around 2015 (very blue sky) our share price could be calculated as follows (remember this is very rough):

- same margins as 11mtpa (however in reality the costs would be lower as economies of scales would work)
- 511,000,000 shares currently on issue
- $395,000,000 net profit after tax from 11mtpa (As per BFS from Mungada and Karara)
- Therefore $36 profit after tax per tonne of ore delivered (this is probably a little high, but yet again who knows what the IO prices maybe)

- $35.9 x 40 million tonnes of ore = $1,436,363,636 net profit after tax!
- EPS of 15 means market cap of GBG would be 21,545,454,540
- Therefore Market Cap divide by shares on issue
- $21,545,454,540/511,000,000 shares = $42.16
- SHARE PRICE = $42.16

But you must remember reaching 40mtpa won't be easy, however GBG does have the resource to do so.

Must remember only BHP and RIO are producing above these levels no one else is even close except for FMG in the upcoming months. FMG has a 200mtpa blue sky targeted production. GBG is 50 to 60 i think.

No one else could reach this production but MMX/MIS. Is that correct?

Also remember this calculation is very rough and I believe if China continue a growth of 9 to 11%pa that GBG's share price would be significantly higher if it reached 40mtpa.