Thanks Forro - always appreciate your honest & forthright posts. I still think Conti has a bright future (albeit "long term"), even though the SP fall since the heady days of January 2011 has been dreadful. I always intended to hold until Botswana results were in, along with Penumbra & DeWitt production. Also very optimistic about the Colombian coking coal diversification. The profit margins & operating environment there sound far superior to SA. Will see how things shape up after then. Thermal coal sector at the moment is wretched - and Conti has been smashed along with pretty much all coal stocks. For example look at one of the darling coal stocks on the ASX, Coalspur (CPL) operating in Canada - down from $2.25 to 68c recently.
CCCOs appear to be valueless at the moment, with poor liquidity - so even if I wanted to sell there is no market. Option holders could be thrown a lifeline, but I have no idea what the conditions might be for a new set of options, likely offered as a rights issue for all equity holders. Ideally any replacement options will be as long dated as possible. With 7.5 months remaining it is still too early to write them off, even if the prognosis looks bleak.
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KIWI - as far as the rumour on the KAB threads about Jason Brewer leaving Conti goes - I just asked Jason directly, and he said emphatically, that the rumour is false, without an ounce of truth. So that makes me think the person who mentioned it is talking out of their posterior.
CCC Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
