Hi Guys
Firstly apologies for the spelling in the previous post, these posts are generally typed in between things and I often dont check them.
I note I had P% in the first post, this was meant to read P50. I think its worth noting as I think the potential value of this field with the new 3D seismic is amazing.
So we have target size for the first well of
P10 9 million
P50 4 million
P90 1-2 million
Using P50 figure used by most conservative Australian oilers Belait 1 offers 1.6 million barrels net to TAP per well of oil at a chance of success of 33-50%. Using a NPV per barrel of $20 given its onshore and shallow that would be 1.6 million X20 = 32 million dollars or 20.5 cents. So we have a 33-50% chance of adding 21 cents per share per well . As far as wells go the only time you get a higher chance of success is when you have a development well i.e drilling within or around the borders of an existing oil field to draw more reserves
The upper case estimate using the P10 figure is 46 cents of value per share per well . So a successful campaign in June could theoretically add nearly a dollar in value. The point is perhaps we dont have to wait for the big prospects to see some serious value added to Tap
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