You might be right, though I think in the 4s doesn't reflect reality and I don't think it will stay there. Below 5c puts the MC below $40M which considering ECH/HZO paid $51.5M for equivalent stakes just in Mereenie, seems excessively pessimistic.
I am pretty critical towards CTP on several issues, particularly their appalling record on exploration, but underlying the SP is (or at least, should be) the solidly performing production business which is going to benefit greatly from increased cashflow the next few years, with increased production, higher margins and with a clear path to zero debt.
Even if this Blacktip well is successful it's hard to see it restoring production back to previous levels, and if it's a duster that'll be the end of Blacktip entirely IMO. And on top of that, CTP's contracts are for the next 5 years which sees the debt paid down completely at this vastly improved margin over what they were getting before the NGP shut.
Against that CTP is going to have two new low-risk crestal Pacoota wells at Mereenie and possibly a Stairway appraisal well, which as I have said previously is a much improved chance of success compared with the previous one they drilled.
MM said CTP will shortly announce its shareholder returns policy, which I am interested to see. Although given what the word "shortly" apparently means to CTP management I won't hold my breath - it could mean several years away going by past record.
But all in all, there should be limited downside risk here. I'm not surprised the SP isn't running up to 8c+ but below 5c is well below fundamental value IMO. I see 6-7c fair value given in the producing fields and any exploration success could drive it north from there - if they ever find themselves at risk of actually drilling an exploration well.
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