bad feeling , page-15

y39, you've touched on one of the great unknowns re RE.
There have been various estimates from Gareth Hatch at 4ktpa using ROW import data to a Baotou official claiming 40ktpa.
There are two levels, smuggling to export mkts to gain against export costs & domestic smuggling to avoid production quotas so in effect both the above estimates could be correct.
One thing is certain in that China created the smuggling problem in springing their "rare" earths trap in 2010 and totally misunderstanding the free markets propensity for speculation & bubble prices.
China is now moving aggressively thru consolidation & the Baotou trading platform (commencing August) to control supply and put a floor under prices. The trading platforms success or otherwise will be a good indication.
For more detail go find Gareth Hatch's articles at TMR & HongPo's at ProEdgeWire, by far the best commentary IMO.
Given the v low Japanese imports one has to wonder at the level of smuggling given the LT connections between the two countries, an effective break on smuggling could have a positive effect on the Sojitz mktg agreement although Ce/polishing will remain an issue.