bad feeling , page-64

'I certainly agree that China has the capabilities to produce high purity REO and mix to customer spec. Only problem is the reliability of supply. That's obviously a big problem.'

Is supply a big problem? From a quick review of the export quotas, the ROW has not even purchased the quota. This would suggest that either the demand is not there, or it is being sourced from some another country where all the existing perceived 'problems' remain.

I'd still like to be referenced to one of the big 6 users of REEs that has cut production due to reliability of supply. In fact the perceived supply issues manufactured by China with their quotas has probably introduced a level of innovation as to how lower usage of REE can be used in many manufacturing processes.

If China can supply purity and mix for the major uses of REE, and their export quotas are not being filled, then I don't see LYC or Moly being able to command a premium over Chinese sourced REE, except in significant added value processes.

I don't believe that LYC is in the business of downstream added value manufacturing. Having said which it is possible that they will joint venture with a manufacturer, but this generally takes time, and I don't think LYC or Moly have a lot of time on their side.

REE price increases, due to world demand could save them both, and LYC also has the advantage of a falling AU$.

The world has moved on since the heydays of 2010 & 2011, and investment decisions made then just do not stack up the same way with the current economic numbers.

Can LYC survive and be profitable - for sure. But the $2 party may have to be put on hold, indefinitely in the absence of increasing world demand. As for the $4 party rockets - dream on with current numbers.

4-traders show the 7 analysts consensus EPS of negative for 2013 and zero for 2014. Yea, I know that no one believes the analysts, however when Pats issued their target of over $2 this board was full of posters justifying their position based on said target. One can't have it both ways, can one?