Hi Mel.
Looks like we have a similar background.
After a B Comm with an Accounting Major at MU, I spent 5 years at Ford Motor Coy, mainly in Management
A/C and project evaluations. Then left to complete MBA, followed by a 1 1/2 yrs at Esso as HOF in Sydney, had to return to Melbourne for family reasons. Spent a year pursuing a mining company float, but abandoned after the mining collapse and joined academia as Head Fin Dept. I established Bbus with Finance major , Associate Dip course in Finance and Post grad in corporate fin. Also organised finance conferences with top finance professionals and summer courses. What I appreciated most was to associate with highly intelligent independent thinkers, with a good sense of humour, enjoying regular wine sessions, but still progressive and entrepeneurial. It was a good time.
Retired in 1991, pursued investments since and re-entered share market in a serious fashion 6 yrs ago.
As regards SGH , I have invested 65% and 75% of my SMSF and family portfolios, because I rate the chance of collapse as less than 5%, and success 95%. It also helps that share trades are highly liquid in SGH, which I proved on Monday, so you can salvage a good % of your investment. ( In my view stop losses are fairly useless when you need them most because of high freq traders).
My sentiment is expressed in my earlier blog, but I also fully agree with your analysis of cash flows going forward.
I suspect that SGH management is relying on ongoing operations to trade out of their difficulties without engaging in financial engineering to any extent. I wish them luck and actually believe in their competence to pull it off and in no way believe that they have acted dishonestly.
Cheers Jake
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