Ive said the same. Except I disagree with the details of the dynamic you have suggested.
What they're doing is the good cop bad cop routine.
MIN comes in with an insulting offer, but putting it out there that their offer is all they think it is worth.
Along comes their good cop mate...saying ill give you 7 or 8...
MIN then says, oh, if you give 8, ill give you all of my NWE stock - we reckon its only worth 6, so thank YOU for the Christmas present.
NWE SH will then have the impression that 7 or 8 is a good deal and look upon the good cop as a saviour rather than a wolf in sheeps clothing.
Ill put it out there again. If MIN want NWE and they reckon thats what its worth, why don't they:
- offer a 21,5% 78.5% merger offer between ERL and NWE,
- float the resultant entity (or just use the NWE shell) -
- and MIN can then sell say 40% down into an IPO - at 6 c implied value -
- and get some cash and keep a bunch of shares so they still retain their control?
ANSWER - because 6 c is too damned cheap, and they want all the upside (it is considerable here - read my and others posts to get a sense of potential) to themselves and/or they want to share it with their mates to build up brownie points with them. Don't underestimate the inextricably intertwined business relationships and the dynamics that go with that. Don't underestimate their sway with mass media either.
After LKR2 and NED1 get drilled NWE will skyrocket. Any fool that sells to them or their mates and assists them in their plan will get to read headlines like:
"Lockyer Gas Field largest on shore discovery in Australia at 5 TCF, with 500 mDarcy permeability gives CE the best 2023 Christmas present". We will be treated with quotes like...."We have more gas here than in Parliament House in Canberra" says a happy CEO
"Bonus stacked oil reservoir in the Dongara/Wagina will pay for MINs even newer luxurious head office being built on Scarborough Beach". And in 2024
"Greater Lockyer hosts another 3 TCF gas field and associated oil . CE cant believe his luck".DYOR
