@maxi48 ... Your 423.6% is fair enough and it would ~ coincide with the downtrend line + trendline off the 17783.59H ... our last lower swing high within the Mar./June distribution range.
...BUT, what about another valid(?) 423.6%er ... out of the 15942.37L ... BINGO "Kiss me Baby" at Friday's high.... SO is that IT???? Two things that say NIGH, apart from being under that (yellow) downtrend line; 1/. We are seeing S/T consolidation above the MT of the 'fork' and 2/. We are now above the 38.2% extn of the initial Bear(?) rally range(so maybe we need to see the 61.8% extn level ...just above your 4.236% level...tested).
Also, if we look at the SPX, and take the same 423.6% start date you'll see we still have some more upside to go to get to the 423.6%T; BUT Friday's upside action 'stopped' right on the 38.2% extn of our initial Bear(?) rally range and right at the yellow downtrend line I have taken from the ATH and thru the "Breakdown" swing high(valid, who knows?). Having said that the 'fork' is still very +ve with a successful back_test of the UIT hinting higher prices(to the OT of the 'fork') are still to come as well.
I remain a cautious and with an open mind...
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