Bagging An Elephant, 8 Years In The Making, page-13

What my model tells me and should be intuitively obvious is the contractor barrel margin is dependent on the crude price and flow rate.
Leaving at 100,000 BPD
$40 crude price (according to my spreadsheet which is not guaranteed to be accurate) a barrel is worth ~ $6.40 to the contractor. At $80 it is ~ $17.50

So if you are trying to figure out what a T/O barrel price might be among the main factors are quality, recoverable resource and potential flow rate(s). I think current crude prices can be largely ignored because any commercial development is going to have a 10 year plus life.