What my model tells me and should be intuitively obvious is the...

What my model tells me and should be intuitively obvious is the contractor barrel margin is dependent on the crude price and flow rate.
Leaving at 100,000 BPD
$40 crude price (according to my spreadsheet which is not guaranteed to be accurate) a barrel is worth ~ $6.40 to the contractor. At $80 it is ~ $17.50

So if you are trying to figure out what a T/O barrel price might be among the main factors are quality, recoverable resource and potential flow rate(s). I think current crude prices can be largely ignored because any commercial development is going to have a 10 year plus life.