Bakken Oil Producers

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article...1-09&utm_content=&utm_campaign=more_article_1

Haven't seen this posted but it should be taken into consideration. That is the Reuters article.

This is the link to Lynn Helms' (Director Mineral Resources North Dakota) presentation

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/presentations/FullHouseAppropriations010815.pdf

Highlights breakeven oil price at the well head at which all drilling would cease - $36 Williams county - so apply the Bakken discount to get the WTI index price (interestingly he uses an average of Flint Hills Resources price and WTI to derive wellhead).


The pricing for Flint Hills is here (the price they pay for merchantable crude purchased and delivered to their pipelines/facilities): http://www.fhr.com/refining/bulletins.aspx

North Dakota Light Sweet (effective date 9th Jan): $31.75

For comparison, the PAALP system on 9th Jan: $31.94  (see I was cutting SSN some slack using higher price).
http://www.paalp.com/customer-center/crude-oil-price-bulletins-1363.html


Lynn Helms' projection clearly show that $55 (wellhead) is needed to keep production flat at 1.2MMbopd.

With all the Capex cuts going on across Nth American shale (and even conventional projects) there could easily be 500Mbopd (across shale plays in US/CAN) reduction at by end of year. Toss in GoM, North Sea, Alaska, and a few other projects and they could end up a considerable number. Then toss in an OPEC cut for good measure and the current "glut" (less than 1MMBopd I've read and much of that because of Iraq coming back online in many places) and we get a "shortage". But the difference this is I think the financiers will be spooked by how easily it can unravel when unconstrained production growth occurs all at once.
Breakeven rates for new wells, the level at which all drilling would cease, range from $29 in Dunn county and $30 in McKenzie to $36 in Williams and $41 in Mountrail. These four counties account for 90 percent of the drilling in the state. - See more at: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article..._campaign=more_article_1#sthash.2ssZmkCS.dpuf
Breakeven rates for new wells, the level at which all drilling would cease, range from $29 in Dunn county and $30 in McKenzie to $36 in Williams and $41 in Mountrail. These four counties account for 90 percent of the drilling in the state. - See more at: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article..._campaign=more_article_1#sthash.2ssZmkCS.dpuf

Breakeven rates for new wells, the level at which all drilling would cease, range from $29 in Dunn county and $30 in McKenzie to $36 in Williams and $41 in Mountrail. These four counties account for 90 percent of the drilling in the state. - See more at: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article..._campaign=more_article_1#sthash.2ssZmkCS.dpuf
Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms outlined breakeven rates for wells across the state and production projections for a range of prices in a presentation for the House Appropriations Committee of the State Legislature - See more at: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article..._campaign=more_article_1#sthash.2ssZmkCS.dpuf