I doubt it will get to $6.10 today. Although this update was a...

I doubt it will get to $6.10 today. Although this update was a disaster, it is not 'the end' for BAL or the Bellamy's brand. The next six months will be transformational, a real test of management and the board, and it can go two ways.

Regarding the $15-$20 mill extra investment in FY17, if it is truely one off, then EBIT margins should jump back above 20% in FY18. The optimistic case would have volumes are revenues growing in FY18, maybe 20-30%. Let's call it 25%, @ EBIT margin 21% = EPS $0.47c. x 20 = $9.42. That is the optimistic scenario.

Pessimistic scenario is flat or declining revenue in 2H17 & into FY18. I.e below $120mill in 2H17 and $240mill in FY18, combined with increased fixed costs and a lower EBIT margin, under 20% = $6 SP.