BAL - Chart, page-2908

I have no specific knowledge of shorting, but like you, it's on my mind given the apparent illogicality of shorts going up to record levels as the share price goes up.

Contrary to the general feeling about shorters on this forum, I wouldn't write them off as lay investors taking a punt that the price is going to go down. Sure, shorters get it wrong too, but the big shorters out there are not basing their investments on a hunch. The ones that can influence the BAL share price are trading in large quantities – they're not at retail level like the two clowns that haunt this forum – and I'm sure have done their homework very thoroughly to arrive at their beliefs about where the company is going.

As some of the shorters have borrowed their stock from substantial holders, I think it can be assumed that they have knowledge other investors don't have, courtesy of the substantial holder who has more access to the company's management. I don't mean the kind of information that must be divulged under "continuous disclosure" law, but I would think they have better insights based on their level of access.

As for information from BAL, I won't be holding my breath. Not just because the company is terrible at communicating, but because there's nothing worth a media release. Everyone knows there are only two things that are going to determine the share price substantially: SAMR approval, and the annual figures in August. Any serious price movement before those two come in is just speculation (which is also the category in which I would put "broker notes", "analyst recommendations" and ratings.)

Who knows. The shorters may have it wrong big time. Or they may be on to something. One thing's for sure: the amount of short interest is worrying.