BAL - Chart, page-21

I believe market is finally starting to realise that if you package your own products, your COGS will go down proportionately after recovery of fixed cost and all that matters will be variable cost to inventory produced. Better EBIDTA margin to be enjoyed in the later years, and that extra profits could be used to better serve marketing spend to produce more sales locally and internationally.

The baby food market is expected to grow by 6% CAGR upto 2020. The organic food market for babies is expected to grow at the higher rate due to caution by parents or urge to give the best to their kids when they simply can't decide for themselves, individuals will have their own reasons. There isn't a number to substantiate (organic baby food growth CAGR) at this point, so logic will be the way to go. Even a 1% growth CAGR if compared globally is a big deal.

The overall baby food portfolio is improving significantly. The firm isn't obligated to disclose food mix % to revenue as it is commercially sensitivity information, so we'll have to rely on other proxies to estimate if its going up or down. For starters, if we just go through their website, about 30% of their baby food range, excluding formula is "out of stock." This maybe a bad news for consumers temporarily, but a good news for investors as it could also mean that there is an overwhelming demand.

As an investor, I'm a big fan of scarcity than glut.