Alrighty then, moving further forward ... now it becomes somewhat of a personal preference. If I had a say if TLG's future it would look something like this.
At this point in time only looking at what I'm calling Stage-1 (not to be confused with the PFS stage 1 and 2). I'm also leaning towards pabs way of thinking ... the next step will be a BFS (or commercial DFS if you like) followed immediately by funding package along with FEED/FID shortly thereafter. If anything I would think that TLG would want to slide the timeline to the LEFT!! (as in starting to think Stage 2 ... UK ...)
10% of an operation estimated to throw off $600M per year for 14 years to be sold for $300M cash payment (5X multiple of annual EBITDA). Made a reduction to EBITDA to account for Talnode-Si being excluded from the interest sold. I've got TLG selling off 20% of Stage-1 ...receiving $600M cash ... TAX IMPLICATIONS on asset sale?
I'm also trying to be selective ... as in TLG is selling off 20% of Talnode-C ... and keeping all Talnode-Si
I've got Mitsui taking 50% of the total Talnode-C output (their 10% plus 40% from TLG (so half our production)... LKAB do whatever with their 10%).
What I would like to see is Mitusi to agree to "prepay" for 40,000 tonnes p.a. of Talnode-C at ASP $7,500 fixed each year for 5 years ... which is $300M per year at the commencement of the project construction (its a big ask since ~ 2 yrs to design & construct - but they get the product cheap for 5 years!) This still leaves TLG with 40% of the total annual production to sell to the market.
That $600M cash from asset sell down goes straight to CSE which then gets recycled into Long-term assets (Mine & Plant) and this completed in H2 of FY'21
BTW ... this balance sheet would put BVE at ~$2.20/sh ... and even if P/B drops from 20 to 5 its $11/share!Now this is a balance that can comfortable handle debt and considering we are on the hook for $1,040M in Capex alone I would like to see that debt held in the Stage-1 subsidiary, off our balance sheet as project finance. There should be no trouble getting $650M Bond deal using Mitsui's AA- crediting rating as say a 10yr Bond with 3% (or less) coupon. Project funding is 50% debt and 50% at the project level. TLG project Equity contribution 50% x $1,300 x 80% = $520M. We are then also guaranteed $300M in Revenue during those first 2 years of construction & commission when nothing yet produced.
IF and its still a reasonably big if, such a structure works I might take a crack at creating a model that simulates the potential residual earnings that flow to TLG .... which is my way of figuring what the Intrinsic Value of the company (not a stock price value though).
(20min delay)