Balanced view for long term investors

Hi all, I felt most other threads were too short-term focused, so here are my 2 cents for long term holders and I refer to the numbers presented in the Visa article:

Short term traders (long and short) - These are momentum / technical traders, they like to find an excuse to justify their trades like insider selling, AUSTRAC, Visa, etc. In reality however, they are just looking at the prices on a minute / hourly / daily basis. Good on them, as they had the chance to cash in ~30% gain in 2 weeks recently, and now is shorters' chance to capitalize on the ~10% crash and possibly even lower next week.

Long term active investors like myself, you should ask yourself the following questions, I am keen to hear your opinions too:
1. Is BNPL model here to stay? - Yes absolutely! Why else would so many competitors pop up recently?! Klarna will list here in AUS in July, VISA is joining the party early next year. New entrants will not stop as the VISA article pointed out, their own 2017 research concluded this is a $18 trillion USD underlying sales industry!
2. Who will win / dominate? Again the Visa article pointed out this is a very fragmented new industry. This industry will evolve, consolidate and possibly be dominated by a few players. But this will take years to evolve, the message in the Visa article was no one including APT nor Visa can just simply own 90% of the industry. Look at the card payment industry (Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Diners, PayPal, Square...)
3. Where will APT be as a business in 5 years time? Current underlying sales of APT is only ~$4b AUD, if APT only captures 2-3% of the $18 trillion USD industry, you can do the maths. So there is still plenty of blue sky for all players including APT. In fact with its track record, there is no reason to believe APT will stop growing at only 2-3% of the total market share.

4. Where will APT share price be in 12 months time? I am an aggressive investor and I always look for shares that could rise ~100% in 12 months time. Unfortunately I don't like my chances of APT again delivering +100% return in the next 12 months.
4a. ASX is just too small... If APT increases another +100% return, its market cap would be ~$15b, possibly sneaking into ASX20 and certainly leading ASX50! But there is only so much money available in ASX, fundies and investors would have to dump ~$7-10b of other ASX blue chip shares to bid up APT. I think no ASX50 stock has ever provided +100% return year after year...
4b. APT is now a favourite for short term traders. Its price will continue to swing like a yoyo, and people will continue to create sensational excuses for the dramatic rises and falls. This is not good for the long term health of the share price.
4c. Valuation... For many holders, this is already a Disallowed. It is 2.5 for myself. But I feel sorry for those whose average purchase price is ~$20, since last August APT has only delivered on par or below performance for you...

So long term holders should continue to HOLD, but you must closely assess your performance goal and examine % of your holdings. At one stage APT made up 30% of my holdings, which was far too risky. I have gradually REDUCED to 10%, but I think this is still a bit high because I see other ASX and US stocks have a better chance of achieving +100% return than APT in the next 12 months.Its a new FY, so new tactics, lots of thinking and calculations to do this weekend, I am keen to hear everyone's thoughts, please do share!